The Yankees season is 10% over, the Yankees are 12-4 with a pretty OK offense and some shockingly good pitching, tying them for 6th in baseball in run differential at +21. We’re also at the point for most hitters where K rate stabilizes, also at that point for a number of starting pitchers, but I’m talking hitting here. So, let’s dig into Gleyber’s rough start and how a few other guys are going.
Originally, this was going to be a piece contrasting Volpe and Gleyber’s interestingly contrasting statcast profiles, but then Volpe went and hit the shit out the ball this weekend. Coming into the weekend, Volpe had put together good PAs, but just hadn’t hit the ball particularly hard (kind of like he was doing early last year) or made consistently good contact. It’s really incredible how much Volpe has improved over last year (Small Sample Size concerns for sure). Basically, everything was bad last year. He didn’t make a lot of contact with a 19th percentile K rate and a 33rd percentile whiff rate, although he did walk at an above average rate, and when he did make contact, he wasn’t hitting the ball very hard with a 37th percentile average exit velocity. Basically, he hit like a back up infielder, or how you would expect most non-Altuve 5’9″ guys to hit.
Turn to 2024 and aided by a big weekend, he looks like a truly elite hitter. I’m not going to dig super deep, but basically, he’s not swinging and missing and he’s making quality contact. Take a peek at his statcast page if you want to feel giddy.
On to Gleyber…
Coming off of maybe his best offensive season yet and about to hit free agency, I was really hoping for a great season from Gleyber’s bat. So far, that has not been the case. It’s been rough, he’s hitting .203/.297/.234. Oof. Now there’s some good there despite his pretty brutal line, Torres is repeating one of the skills that made his 2023 so good, he’s walking and he’s seeing a ton of pitches (6th in baseball). He’s also not chasing out of the zone at all. All of that sounds like he’s putting together some really good at bats.
Unfortunately, despite his improved discipline, he’s not hitting the ball, whiffing on 25% of his swings. Last year he was pretty good about making contact when swinging, but it’s not all good news, historically he’s a whiffer. While the swings and misses aren’t great, the bigger issue is just how poor of contact Gleyber is making, he’s really struggling to square the ball. Statcast DOES think he’s gotten a bit unlucky when it comes to XBH, but not enough to make a big difference.
If you think Gleyber Torres has lost the ability to hit at age 27, then he could be done. I’m going to take the really out there position that Gleyber is not falling off the edge. Even if his swing and miss rate stays where it is, it’s likely that his contact quality will normalize. I’d bet on his discipline slipping some and his overall line settling in to something close to last year. IF his discipline stays elite though, he could really have a (another) break out year, assuming his contact quality returns to reasonable levels.
Other players of note:
One of Rizzo’s greatest skills as a batter was not striking out, while making pretty good contact and taking walks. It’s obviously hard to build a trend with his concussion marred 2023, but his K rate has been dropping from elite over the past few years, and like Gleyber he’s making awful contact this year.
Verdugo is basically a contact hitter. He’s walking a TON so far this year, but making insanely poor contact. This is beginning to be a trend.
Stanton is doing Stanton things, hitting the ball hard when he does make contact, but not doing that much. His chase rate is laughably high and his walk rate is terrible, those will probably normalize to mediocre and good and we’ll see more of the same.
Cabrera has been fun so far. Do not expect it to continue.
I think Rizzo is done. He had some big hits over the weekend but looks more like slap hitting. He’s slow – even in the field. Gotta be the concussion but I’ll wait another 10% of the season before giving up.
Stanton was hot for a few days. I’ve said earlier when he’s hot he’s awesome but his hot streaks last shorter and shorter; I think that’s still true. He’s not worth very much. Sub-220 by July? Time to realize it’s a sunk cost.
As to Gleyber – I think I once read stats about second baseman losing it earlier than others. Edgardo Alfonzo as one example; Carlos Baerga as another. Both washed up before age 30. Time to move on.
Yeah, I’m pretty worried about Rizzo. He’s never been a truly elite hitter, but has been really effective because he is really disciplined and doesn’t swing and miss. If a combination of age and the concussion has robbed that from him, he just doesn’t hit the ball well enough to make up for it, IMO.
I think we’ll see more of a low 200s Stanton than sub 200s, which is still frustrating, but .225/320/500 is much more palatable than .190/270/450.
I think Gleyber is kind of where Judge was a few days ago. The approach is great, he’s just a bit off. His defense is getting worse and worse though.
At 27 Gleyber should not be done, I think he’ll correct as will Waldo. Rizzo at 34 and after a serious health problem concerns me. He’s slugging 75 points lower than his Yankee norm and 120 points lower than his career norm.
A couple of HRs will fix that slugging.
I think both rizzo and Torres are pressing with the exception that Torres has more leeway as his physical talents imo haven’t betrayed him yet.
it’s possible rizzo is suffering from post-concussion symptoms as he didnt permit the appropriate amount of rest after last seasons incident and he is competing at an elite level – ie every little bit counts. all in all, I don’t know what to expect but would be happy with a .775-.8 ops from him.
FYI, 20% of ppl suffer from protracted post concussion symptoms, and id imagine that threshold expands given the nature of being a professional athlete, so if his concentration or eyesight is effected even marginally it will be borne out in a larger sample
I think that makes sense about marginal effects having a bigger impact. Also we saw what happened to Clint Frazier from concussions.
The defense is what’s really glaring to me about Gleyber, since it’s just so FIXABLE, and yet he just…doesn’t fix it.
at this point he’s playing himself into a 1-year prove-it deal
There’s been bad defense to go around this season.
Also I didn’t expect Verdugo to do well in NY and I was right
Yankee infield defense 17th in OAA
Grisham in, Stanton sitting, Wells starting, Gil pitching.
Sterling holding a presser this Friday, he’s expected to announce his retirement.
Pa Yankee is done. Never thought I’d see the day.
I thought this was going to be one of those things where he outlives us all
I suppose he still might
https://twitter.com/BryanHoch/status/1779974406241915076
What is going on with Gleyber Torres’ eyebrows?
Statcast has nothing to say about them
Groucho style?