From Bryan Hoch:
The flashbacks hit Aaron Judge as he strode through Kauffman Stadium’s visiting dugout during this American League Division Series, reminders of the hollowness that he and his teammates experienced on those same grounds 12 months ago.
They had been in a glum daze as they scanned the infield dirt for a few extra beats while their season ended, relegated to outsiders while baseball’s best teams were advancing to more important games. They’ve resolved to never experience that again.
“All day, I was just thinking about our season ending here in ’23,” Judge said on Thursday. “No playoffs, that stung. A lot of guys stuck around, staring at the field, a lot of what-ifs. What could we have done here?”
We have some of those answers now. After 94 wins in the regular season, the Yankees are eight wins shy of their ultimate goal, as Judge secured the final out of a 3-1 victory over the Royals in Game 4 of the American League Division Series.
I legit think that Judge has some PR person tell him, “Hey, bring up how last season ended in KC if you win this series here,” as why in the world would an “angle” like that occur to Judge otherwise? That’s such a PR/writer thing, it doesn’t feel natural coming from Judge. But hey, if he says he thought about it, I guess I have to believe him.
In any event, wow, what a win!
Obviously, since it was a series-clinching win, I had to go with the team celebrating it as the featured image, but if this was a non-clinching win, I’d go with this Gerrit Cole image after he got through seven innings with only allowing one run. Cole doesn’t normally do stuff like scream after he gets out of the seventh, so that was notable (there was a great video of Cole’s face when Isbel’s flyball left the bat, and he thought it was gone).
Here’s an interesting point – Cole had a great game, no doubt, but those two flyballs by Melendez and Isbel, there was no way that he had any control over those NOT being home runs, right? That was just some fortuitous wind. So we could EASILY be looking at Cole giving up four runs in this game. Glad he didn’t, of course, and he can’t really get knocked TOO much for hits that DIDN’T happen, but boy, those were two rather big flyballs, especially that Isbel shot. How the fuck do you let Kyle fucking Isbel hit the ball THAT far?
Gleyber and Soto got the game to a great start, and Judge and Stanton both game through. Volpe had some terrible luck, Wells looks like a lost cause out there, and since he talked some CRAZY shit, Jazz Chisholm has proceeded to go hitless, so, well, THAT’S quite embarrassing by him (but hey, I guess the Yankees DID win both games after he said they would, so good for him, I guess).
Boone moronically used Holmes in the 8th inning in a two-run game, but Holmes was EXCELLENT tonight. I actively like Holmes, I just don’t want him in the 8th or 9th inning of a two-run game. He can pitch lower leverage innings, but not the 8th or 9th. But hey, it worked out.
Similarly, Boone pinch-ran for Stanton with two outs and a runner on third base in the 8th. It turned out not to matter, but there was NO WAY that Boone knew that Stanton’s bat wasn’t going to be needed in the rest of the game, and with two outs and the runner on first base, what were the odds of Jazz Chisholm hitting a double there? And even if he DID, you’d still be up 4-1 with runners on second and third. What’s the upside there? With no outs or one out it would be a totally different story, as you’d likely have Ellis then steal second, as he can pretty much steal second at will. I’m totally fine with that approach (and honestly, Grisham should probably be left off of the ALCS roster so that you can keep Ellis on the roster for pinch-running purposes. I like the idea of a pinch-runner who is almost automatic, but that wasn’t the time), but it was inappropriate in this moment. Boone is just a dummy. But hey, it worked out, they won the game.
Now that Tariq Skubal won’t be starting Game 1 or Game 2 of the ALCS (unless he goes on short rest for Game 2, which I guess is a possibility), I honestly don’t have a preference between Cleveland and Detroit. They both have really good pitching staffs that the Yankees will likely suck against, so there’s no real difference between them in my book (except if Skubal was pitching three times in a series, of course).
Can Luis Gil or a possibly-now-healthy Nestor Cortes please pitch Game 1 of the ALCS over Rodon?
Great win and it feels good to be back in the ALCS. Without Soto, I don’t think this team makes the playoffs or let alone win the LDS. Fantastic pickup. Make it count.
Jose Ramirez seems as likely to dominate a series and make it his as Skubal would.
I’d rather skubal twice than Ramirez inning after inning. Maybe against skubal you take enough pitches to get him out after 6. Then again maybe just walk JR a lot?
If Skubal pitched Game 3 he’d be available for Game 7. This isn’t some kind of coup to have him going tomorrow. When was the last time you say a guy actually line up for 1/4/7 going short-short like that was the actual plan? CC in ’09, because CC was a beast. MadBum maybe in one of those NLCS?
I don’t know why everyone’s talking about the LDS, I don’t even know if Mormons like baseball
Bryce Harper likes baseball and does not in any way like having been eliminated in the LDS.
Is he one of the Utah Saints? Well, good for him
Monday is doing to be insane
I’m definitely in the camp of wanting to face the Tigers. I just go back to how much the Chicago White Sox season skewed the AL Central this year. Without them, the Royals and Tigers don’t even make it. I think this Yankees team is clearly superior to the Tigers and it would be easier to win 4/7 against them than against the Indians. Ideally you win in 6 and only have to face Skubal once.
I don’t get it, the Yankees were eliminated on September 24 in 2023, the Royals had nothing to do with it. The season was done before they played the last series in KC.
Tigers – Whatevers game moved to 1:08 PM Saturday because of potential bad weather later in the day.
First, of course the pitcher has something to do with how far hitters hit the ball. Ever decent fly ball pitcher builds a career on that fact. And Melendez didn’t even reach the warning track, there’s no reason even to mention it. Cole really allowed one deep fly ball all game, and it didn’t go out. Happens all the time, we don’t count them as HRs. I think Cole pretty reasonably owns his line.
What I *CAN* agree with is this:
“Boone moronically used Boone in the 8th inning in a two-run game”
Using Boone in ANY situation is moronic, and certainly in this one. Boone should know better, but we know he knows far, far worse.
Cute bit by the team chanting Cole’s name for him to come out for the team photo.
https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news/yankees-chant-for-gerrit-cole-after-alds-clinch
Also cute was Yankees mock booing Jazz during the celebration.
https://youtu.be/zUG3jrSPBIo
Brains…..
Pinstriper sighting
Is there something about Yankees 3b where you have to now turn into Josh Donaldson? just stfu / keep it positive.
Yamamoto gone after 63 pitches. Is he on a strict pitch count?
He’s just coming back from injury right?
Mets are sending McNeil to play a couple of games in the Arizona Fall League so he is sharp for the playoffs. Could the Yankees do the same with The Martian?
Isn’t that a rehab assignment for McNeil? So, no, I don’t think the Yankees can do that with Jasson, and they’d just sit him anyway.
Maybe they won’t even have Jasson on the ALCS roster?
They need a bat for when they run for Stanton, I assume that would be Martian’s role. And maybe if Verdugo goes 0/25 with 24 ground balls to the right side.
Rizzo then.
Teoscar would’ve been a nice fit in LF
Mets in 5 NLCS.
Mets sweep World Series.
Book it.
They asked Kike what was special about this Dodger’s team. Kike goes “are we live?” Yes. “Because we don’t give a fuck.”
Will he get fined?
for sure, but the Dodgers will probably pay it.
What a moron.
How much does tonight’s game help the Yankees if the Tigers win? The comments here argue the polar opposite positions.
…
I tend to think – a lot. The Indians have a lot of not-great starters, the Tigers have one great pitcher. Tonight’s game means they’ve cut down his maximum number of starts by a third. And if they don’t see a game 7, they now might see him only once in the whole series.
(Also worth pointing out: Skubal had two starts vs. NYA this year and came out of it with two no-decisions; overall, he’s 1-3 against NYA with an ERA of 3.00. He never pitched on short rest and often with 6 day’s rest, pitching better on those days – meaning worse on the others.)
Also, the Tigers’ use of openers instead of the traditional allocation of innings seems so rational (as opposed to “the way it’s done”). Is that going to catch on? What they did with that pitching staff in the second half is fascinating.
It will be interesting to see if anyone (including the Tigers) goes into a season with the same approach. There’s a lot about it that makes sense. But it does rely on relievers, who are famously volatile, and a lot of them. As much as we like to talk about most teams having live arms sitting in AAA, they are in AAA still for a reason.
But replacing a 5th or even 4th starter with 2-3 relievers? I could see that being pretty wide spread in the near future.
They really are still using starters. But they begin the game with an opener – and then determine the best place to let the actual (effectively) starter come in. Their main idea is that it let’s them rationally, and far more actively, choose who faces who and when.
It would be fitting if Cleveland won, though; then we’d have the 2 best records in the AL and the best in the NL in the championship series, which probably hasn’t happened in a while (too lazy to look it up).
i guess this is silly but I want the tougher opponent. But then I’m like, is Cleveland actually good? I think they might not be that good.
Respect.
The mutts are stronger. Probably the Dodgers also, but they’re not going to advance.
Tiger 4/37 RISP this series.
Boyd is a starter, he looks sharp, why not try for3/4/5 innings?
You can’t do that Riley.
Aaron Boone said the Yankees haven’t decided on their Game 1 starter. He said they’ll decide tonight or tomorrow. It won’t be Luis Gil. He’ll start later in the series.
This screwball guy is good.
Wow, a better catcher would have got him at home.
Bad luck on Skubal. Got a little squibber.
Just… wow.
So Cleveland it is. Okay, well, good thing the Yankees got home field then, right?
After all the harumphing about the top seeds being at a disadvantage somehow, three of the four top seeds will compete in the Championship Series.
Tigers trying to claw their way back in.
Guardians protecting their lead.
If this holds up, then the only one of the four series where the team I find more compelling won will be… ours.
I’ll take it.
The Whatevers v. the Yankees. May the Post Season of Gloom Part Deux begin.
https://x.com/JomboyMedia/status/1844773983620608420?t=867L4X4II8nbhJKUvsJCqA&s=19
That was very sweet.
My guess is that they go Schmidt in Game 1, Rodon in Game 3.
That works for me.
Really after Cole they have three pitchers who are pretty close to equivalent – all could be great, all could be pretty bad. If I thought Schmidt were all t he way back, I’d trust him the most. But given that I’m not sure that’s the case, any ordering of those three is as reasonable a guess as any other.
I think they were waiting to see who won between the Tigers and Guardians. If the Tigers won, they are suspectable to lefties, so Rodon would the nod. The Guardians, meanwhile, have more trouble with righties, hence Schmidt getting the nod.
I wish Nestor was a possibility.
Especially given that Cole is the only one expected to give any length having Nestor as the long man or bumping Gil or Schmidt into that role would be awesome. As it is we’ll probably get a “bullpen game” early in the series if one of the starters has to come out early and it’s close, but we may end up with Stroman as the only option to soak up innings later in the series. Which would be (checks binder) not great.
Pretty sure all of them have gone into the seventh, certainly at least into the 6th, a decent amount of the time. It’s not the case that they chronically fail to give length. It’s the fact that they could suck abysmally without warning that’s the problem.
Of course, Skubal gave up a grand slam, too.
Wow. The win snaps an 8 game losing streak for Cleveland in winner take all game series.
Series prices at FD:
NYY -205 (~65.2% after removing the vig)
CLE +172
NYY 4-0 +800
NYY 4-1 +450
NYY 4-2 +340
NYY 4-3 +410
CLE 4-0 +2000
CLE 4-1 +900
CLE 4-2 +750
CLE 4-3 +600
My fair prices (based on matchups of Cobb/Rodon, Bibee/Cole, Schmidt/Boyd and Gil/Lively)
NYY -130 (56.4%)
CLE 130
NYY 4-0 +1221
NYY 4-1 +649
NYY 4-2 +452
NYY 4-3 +475
CLE 4-0: +1981
CLE 4-1: +768
CLE 4-2: +641
CLE 4-3: +628
“Alex Verdugo will “likely” continue to start in left field, Boone said, after being there for all four games of the ALDS.” … CLE -4000.
Meredith Rodon start game 1.
RAB: Don’t love it, but he has to start sometime in the series. The Guards hammer lefties and he’s a homer prone pitcher in Yankee Stadium. Need a quick hook, not matter how good he looks early (see: ALDS Game 2).
I think he’d be fine through 4 if he pitches his ass off, then turn it over to the bullpen
Yankees O/U runs scored.
4 games 13.5
5 games 17
6 games 20.5
7 games 24
I cannot help but wish both the Dodgers and Mets lose their series.