
From David Adler:
Tim Hill is returning to the Yankees on a one-year, $2.85 million contract with a club option for 2026, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Tuesday.
Hill’s club option is for $3 million, with a $350,000 buyout, per Passan. The team hasn’t confirmed the report.
A couple of down notes about Hill before I celebrate his return (and I’ll be frank, I legit AM happy that he is back)….
1. Would I have used Tim Hill over Nestor Cortes in Game 1 of the World Series? Definitely, but at the same time, I had absolutely ZERO faith in Tim Hill getting out of that jam. First and second and one out with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman due up? As good as Hill had been, he was still giving up contact, and he’s very much NOT the guy you want with the tying run on second base with one out. Let’s not get it twisted that Hill was going to be some dominant stopper there. He pitched well in the World Series, but in MUCH lower leverage innings than a one-run game in the 10th inning. When he was used in a decently high leverage inning in Game 4, he DID give up a hit to Ohtani, and then allowed a run to score. I just don’t like this myth that he was some dominant reliever.
2. One of the whole points of Matt Blake is that he can find guys off of the scrap heap and turn them into good relievers, so why pay almost $3 million to a guy who was washed up when the Yankees found him? Why not just get ANOTHER guy off of the scrap heap and pay him the minimum? $3 million shouldn’t matter to the Yankees, but it apparently does, so if they are working with a relatively strict budget, this stuff matters.
Okay, that being said, Hill was great as a Yankee, and if you believe that Blake, like, “fixed” him or whatever, then he should be a good pitcher in 2025, as well, and it is always nice to have another good pitcher on the team, and if he does well, they control him cheaply for 2026, as well.
So I AM happy about the deal, just wanted to temper expectations a bit (and, yes, complain a bit about the “Tim Hill, playoff fireman” narrative).
Zip has Judge 7.7 WAR. Jazz 3.6. Volpe 3.5. Cody 3.0. Wells2.4. Goldy 2.2. Martian 2.0
Steamer Judge 7.1. Volpe 4.1. Jazz 3.6. Wells 3.5. Cody 2.8. Martian 2.2. Goldy 2.0
Those projections are better than expected. That’s 24.4 or 25.3 in WAR for just their top eight hitters. They might actually be able to match last year’s 30.1 in position player WAR, or at least come within spitting distance of it.
Then you have to hope that their improved pitching can beat 17.1 bWAR in pitching, and they might really have something.
Signing Bregman would be the easiest way to solve their issues.
Maybe this is the year that Volpe hits like an average major leaguer?
I get that his defense is valuable, but I think the available calcs are still rudimentary when it comes to dWAR. Currently his career bWAR is 6.7 and 4.1 of that is defense.
So the systems are all presuming that the Martian will an utter mediocrity and worth 1/2 of Volpe, and that all the acquisitions on offense will be mediocre.
If they have that much WAR out of the top 8 with those presumptions, might we be underselling the offensive potential of this team?
I would’ve like to have seen a little more optimism for Bellinger or the Martian.
Zips has Grisham 2.4 based on playing 125 games, Stanton at 1.0 for 108 games, DJ and Waldo at 1.7, 1.6
Steamer Grisham 0.6 at41 games, Stanton 1.1 for 122 games, DJ and Waldo at 0.7, 1.0
Isn’t it fascinating how all the projection systems assume a bounce back for LeMahieu? Based on WHAT, exactly? Dude is 37 years old!
I can’t figure out the bounceback projection either. None of his comps on baseball-reference had distinguished careers after 35. Julio Franco is on there, but he kinda just sucked at an old age but was playable.
For Zips comps, it is more of the same. The top 3 comps used in his projection are Eric Sogard, Tom Herr, and Mark Loretta. None of them did anything at DJLM’s age.
Fangraphs projected playoff odds:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Yankees number one in AL East.
Fangraphs projected standings:
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Yankees highest win total in AL and third overall behind LA and ATL. Boston third highest win projection in AL?!?
MLBTR The Yankees have claimed righty Owen White off waivers from the Reds, per a team announcement. It’s their second waiver claim in the past 20 minutes, as New York also claimed infielder Braden Shewmake from the Royals. The Shewmake claim brought their 40-man roster to capacity, so the Yankees have designated righty Allan Winans (another waiver pickup) for assignment in order to open a roster spot for White.
I tend to trust them on stuff like “Which waiver wire pitcher has the best stuff,” so fair enough.
So now the Yankees will have to DFA someone when the Hill signing becomes official.
Now of course it is possible that his entire stint with the Yankees was SSS and he’ll be the pitcher he was for the white Sox earlier. In which case they just wasted $3m and probably a few losses in 2025 before they realize…
And Jasson has to be better than 2.2 or we’ve been waiting for nothing.
Shewmake The former first-round pick has appeared in parts of two big league seasons but has posted a bleak .118/.127/.191 batting line in 71 plate appearances between the Braves and Sox. He hasn’t offered much more offense in the upper minors, where he’s a .240/.299/.395 hitter in 866 Triple-A plate appearances.
Alonso’s to mutts- deal is for two years and $54 million with an opt-out after 2025, per a source. He gets a $10 million signing bonus and a $20 million salary for 2025, with a $24 million player option fro 2026.
Wow, that’s an awful deal for Alonso. Great for the Mets, though.
Would you have taken him for that money?
The only thing that made sense for him with the Yankees was precisely the thing they COULDN’T do, which was a huge frontloaded one-year deal (or two year deal with an opt out after one).
Alonso turned down an extension of 7/175 in 2023. Just stupid.
I saw 3/71.
Don’s talking about the previous offer he turned down a couple of years ago. He CURRENTLY had a 3/$71 offer from the Blue Jays, but no opt out, so this is definitely a better offer than that. It’s essentially a $30 million one-year deal.
Alonso signed for 1/30 or 2/54 with a WAR projection of 2.4.
Goldschmidt signed for 1/12.5 with a WAR projection of 2.0.
Yep, it just never made sense to get Alonso for the outlay they’d have to spend.
Ben Gamel re-signs with the Astros. It’s amazing how many former Yankees middling prospects kick around the league for years
I’d love to see what team is allegedly offering Bregman six years, because he must REALLY not want to play for them if he hasn’t taken that alleged offer yet.
I assume that one of them is the Yankees with a 5/120ish that they stretched to 6 years for AAV purposes.
Almost 5 years for Ippei. Small price to pay for having Shohei take care of you for life after you took the rap.
That whole thing stinks. We are to believe that Ohtani is so naive as to be unaware of being looted of millions of dollars, but on the other hand, it was Ohtani brilliance that told the Dodgers how to rig his contract. 🤦♂️
O/U Fangraphs
LA 104.5
NYY 93.5
Bal 88.5
https://bsky.app/profile/codifybaseball.bsky.social/post/3lhmeh34syk27
I’ll take the under on the Dodgers and the Yankees.
Cashman has historically been great about sneaking guys through waivers, and he was able to get Winans through waivers, which is nice, but hilariously, the Yankees just lost Roasny on a DFA sneak…to the Orioles, who had waived him to begin with! So I can certainly understand why Cashman figured he could sneak Roasny through waivers, as why would he think that the team that had just DFAed him would claim him?
It’s far from the biggest issue for the players but these endless waiver claims should be limited in some way. like, the team that waived you can’t claim you back within six months or something
Isn’t the waiver system pro player since it was designed so that players can’t be stuck in the minors or off of the 40 man if there is another team that wants them?
But I’m sure the constant itinerant nature of being a fringe player is a big negative toward quality of life for those players, which I presume you were referring to.
You’re right, but like anything else it has its exploitable downsides, like guys who are claimed and waived repeatedly. At a certain point they should just become free agents.
I dunno, if you’re good enough to make it, you’d prefer to be put on waivers, no? Since you have a better chance of sticking on an MLB roster.
Would you? Maybe you would. It’s so disruptive but I suppose you have to accept it as part of the game
Or how about this, a 50K bonus every time you get placed on waivers. Means a lot to that level of player, nothing to a team’s bottom line
Minor leaguers joined the MLBPA so I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of these types of things in the new CBA. Lots of quality of life upgrades for minors guys. Hopefully not in exchange for terrible new rules like a hard cap.
Happy Super Bowl to those who celebrate
And they even ruined the Kitten Bowl renaming it The Great American Rescue Bowl and putting it on a channel I never heard of.
I’m so excited about it I’m watching the ‘96 Series rerun on YES.
That was a good one
Source: Kiké Hernández in agreement to go back to LAD, pending physical.
Paying $2.20/$2.10/$2.10
Players really will bend over backwards to play for the Dodgers. I can’t really begrudge them for it, honestly.
Plus, frankly, I don’t think Kike was really the answer here at third anyways.
Tomorrow should be opening day. Weather be damned.
The Yankees are in agreement with free agent reliever Tyler Matzek on a minor league deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. There’s presumably a non-roster invite to MLB camp for the PSI Sports Management client.