November 15, 2024

45 thoughts on “Yankees.com: ‘They just got lucky’: Yanks’ confidence unshaken after KC knots up ALDS

  1. They are a 500 team. You are what your record says you are and for over half a season they played 500 ball. “We play today we have a 50% chance of winning today; das it.”

    1. Could an early exit cost Boone his job? Soto seems to like Boone. Retaining Soto would be like the only reason to retain Boone.

    1. They can’t win the World Series because they won’t be the NL champs. That’s already been determined.

  2. Updated series prices at FD:

    Yankees -158 (59.3% implied win prob. after removing the vig)
    Royals +134

    KC 3-1: +340
    KC 3-2: +330
    NY 3-2: +220
    NY: 3-1 +195

    My fair prices:

    NYY -121/KC +121 (Yanks 54.8%)

    KC 3-1: +323
    KC 3-2: +362
    NY 3-2: +279
    NY 3-1: +253

  3. Detroit, the Phillies, the Padres and the Yankees is what I’d want.
    Cleveland, the Mets, the Padres and the Royals is what we’re going to get.

  4. This article is overflowing with factors suggesting the potential plausibility of my “low/high run scoring environment” theory”.
    I know how I’d build an equation to account for it if… AI weren’t proving itself too stupid to simply count publicly available stats correctly.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/kauffman-stadium-underrated-hitters-park

    Fascinating stuff.
    Did you know this, for instance?
    “the glaring difference in Batting Average on Balls In Play – i.e., what rate of non-homer batted balls became hits? – between Kauffman’s .305 (fourth-highest) and Yankee Stadium’s .271 (dead last).”

    1. Yankee stadium, especially DNYS has always had a mistaken reputation as a hitter’s ballpark. It does inflate HRs, mostly to lefties (and even that has been subdued after a ridiculous first season), but suppresses all other offense.

    2. Clearly true!
      But would you have guessed that it’s DEAD LAST in terms of BABIP allowed?

    3. I thought it would be just for a season, but it turns out it’s true for at least a 4-season stretch, 2009-2012:
      https://blogs.fangraphs.com/babip-park-factors-and-the-batted-ball-connection/
      AND it’s true over the LAST THREE SEASONS:
      https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=venue&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=500&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_abs=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_babip=on#results

      Since 2008, it’s 34th of 41 parks with .287 – the worst is .282, the best is .387, although that’s London, so discard it – then the best is Coors, with .329, so – discard it – then the best is Fenway with .317, so given that spread, the .287 is probably within margins of error for last place.

  5. So far the other two WC teams are up 2-1 over the first place teams. Let’s hope that stops tonight, but I would not bet on it. Not if judge doesn’t even hit the ball.

    1. Berti didn’t have a fantastic game… but I guess it was good enough to compel Boone to bench him.

  6. It’s not a big deal, per se, but I was irked when it first happened, and I’m still irked at it now, these teams adding buyout guys for nothing. KC shouldn’t be able to add their #5 and #6 hitters just because another team is cheap as fuck.

    1. Brian, didn’t they make a rule back during the Yankee dynasty run to prevent additions too late in the season from being on the postseason roster? There was a pitcher… something to do with Toronto… that had something to do with it… am I making this up? I don’t think so.

    2. There has always been a rule about it, which is why teams now cut their players on the last day of August, so they can latch on to contenders. St. Louis traded for Tommy Pham, then cut him a month later to save, like, $50,000.

  7. Funny! Turned on the Tigers-Indians game as the announcers stated: now stay tuned for Kate Smith.
    I presumed it was the 7th inning stretch and God Bless America.
    But it turns out the Indians have a reliever named Cade Smith.

  8. In 3 innings, Suarez has given up 7 baserunners, but no runs.
    Does it bode well or ill?
    In the meanwhile, one walk is all Quintana’s allowed.

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