From Bryan Hoch:
The Yankees have spent months touting their starting rotation as an October advantage. One loss hasn’t changed that – if anything, it sets up the first real test of a formula they still believe can carry them deep into this postseason.
Saturday’s opener of the American League Division Series offered a preview of the challenge ahead. The Rays’ Drew Rasmussen was masterful, holding the Yankees hitless into the eighth inning of their 1-0 loss in Game 1 at Tropicana Field.
“Look, we know they’re a tough opponent,” Gerrit Cole said. “They’re going to land some blows. You’ve got to take blows in the postseason, and you’ve got to dish them out, too.”
In all best-of-five postseason series, teams taking a 1-0 lead have gone on to win the series 116 of 160 times (73%). In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams taking a 1-0 lead at home have gone on to win 42 of 56 times (75%).
Now, do I believe that the Yankees would have driven in Austin Wells from second base had he NOT been a moron? No, I do not. That does not even REMOTELY excuse him being a complete idiot in trying to stretch a double into a triple with two outs in the 8th inning of a 1-0 game.
But hey, I’ll give him this much, he DID prevent the Yankees from the ignominy of being no-hit in a playoff game.
Drew Rasmussen is not Sandy Koufax, but he DOES have the lowest ERA against the Yankees among any starter in the past 50 years who has faced the Yankees at least ten times. So let’s just say that it will be difficult to defeat him for the Yankees. Luckily, they can still win this series by winning the games he DOESN’T pitch, Mike Scott-style (the Mets beat the Astros in the 1986 NLCS by winning the non-Mike Scott games)
Plus, let’s say Cam Schlittler pitched this game. They probably still lose, and now you’ve burned Cam. Instead, the Yankees will have Cam for Game 2 and possibly a Game 5 back in Tampa Bay, and they’ve only burned Cole. They will have Fried and Rodon for Games 3 and hopefully a Game 4.
The only other time the Yankees and Rays have played each other in the playoffs, the Yankees won Game 1, and lost the series in five. So let’s hope that they, you know, don’t do that this time, and instead win it.
Featured image is Austin Wells’ insane slide into third.
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Padres got fucking robbed last night. Much worse way to go down.
I love the people who keep arguing that it might not have been a home run otherwise. Please, dudes, it was obviously going to be a home run otherwise. I DO agree that it wasn’t, like, cheating or whatever, it was just bad luck, but that WAS going to be a home run.
I can totally see Jones hitting one of those pop-ups off the catwalks in Tampa.
Hey, he did it.
“lowest ERA against the Yankees among any starter in the past 50 years who has faced the Yankees at least ten times”
That’s amazing. I’d never have guessed that (especially after they tattoed him earlier this season!).
…
“Luckily, they can still win this series by winning the games he DOESN’T pitch”
And by making him throw more pitches, and by hitting relievers, and by not letting TB score, absolutely. And by hitting even Rasmussen himself at least a little, at least once, especially if they see him three times in one series.
Yeah, it’s amazing that he still has a sub 2.00 ERA against them even WITH him allowing six runs in two innings earlier this year. It was, like, 0.50 ERA before that point!
“The Yankees have spent months touting their starting rotation as an October advantage.” In a 5 game series with 3 off days rotational depth is not much of an edge. Then again a 5 game series with 3 off days is so unbaseball.
If they’re going to continue to have 6 or more teams from each league make the playoffs they need to shorten the regular season which they have already downgraded. Go back to 154 games then have the WC series be 5 games and all subsequent series 7 games.
Or just, you know, don’t have 3 days off.
This ^ please
You had to know, after scoring all those runs in two games against the Bosox, that they would be back to being offensively challenged. I expect a sweep. They don’t hit; they don’t run the bases well. And making an excuse for awful baserunning just reinforces that. Own up or shut up.
We didn’t hit Tolle great and if they had left Sonny in for 6 or 7 and then gone Whitlock and Chapman we might easily have lost.
Does there seem to be a pattern whereby, unless the stats are warped by Judge hitting 1st-inning home runs, they do far better against relievers than against starters (vis-a-vis expectations)?
“Outpitched in G1”
I want to point out that there’s no way to distinguish between outpitched and out-hit. Perhaps, for instance, the TB offense was much better and the pitching that held it to one run was far, far better than the lesser pitching required to hold yesterday’s Yankees offense to no runs.
Yep. Alternate universe Cole pitched for the Rays and Rasmussen for us.
I think sometimes you can tell. in this case it fits.
Rays regular season OBP 15 points higher than Yankees, BA 23points higher. Is BA now under valued?
Hey we didn’t talk about the new “greatest relief pitcher of all time” Mason Miller blowing Game 2. He walked 3 guys. You know who never walked 3 guys in a playoff game? The actual greatest reliever of all time.
Gary Sanchez was one of the walks before Chourio. So at least one graduate of the Yankees minor league catching corps isn’t thwarting his own team’s rallies.
Mason Miller was probably tipping last night. But Mariano was always tipping and still had a 0.70 postseason ERA in 140+ innings.
I think they should move Rickey Henderson Wells up in the lineup. He’s been one of the better hitters on the team.
Portentous.
No excuse for not being able to damage Peralta
B Rice (L) DH
C Bellinger (L) LF
L García Jr. (L) 1B
S Jones (L) RF
G Lombard Jr. (R) SS
J Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
T Grisham (L) CF
A Wells (L) C
R McMahon (L) 3B
C’mon now, you’ve seen them in action all season since the Judge injury.
Hadn’t realized Gary wears #99 now. Apparently he took it in late 2023 when he went to San Diego, and has kept it since.
At least one #99 is healthy enough to contribute in the playoffs.