From Bryan Hoch:
There have been a handful of mistakes that Luke Weaver believes he has gotten away with throughout this unexpected and magical ride as the Yankees’ de facto closer, offerings that spiked into the dirt or were discarded as harmless foul balls into the seats.
As Weaver felt a changeup roll awkwardly from his fingertips and float into the heart of the strike zone, he braced for impact, hoping to somehow be spared. No such luck: Jhonkensy Noel connected for a game-tying two-run homer, a blast that Weaver couldn’t bring himself to watch in real time.
“One pitch away,” Weaver said after the Yankees’ 7-5 loss to the Guardians in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series. “I’ve just got to execute. I really felt like I let the team down there, let myself down. It’s baseball, things like that happen.”
So close to taking a commanding three-games-to-none series lead powered by clutch eighth-inning homers from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees instead watched a walk-off celebration as Clay Holmes surrendered David Fry’s two-run homer in the 10th inning. They now lead the ALCS by the tighter margin of two games to one.
“That’s a great baseball game if you’re a fan watching, on both sides,” said Anthony Rizzo. “It’s tough to be on this end of it.”
You know what I’ll always remember about this game? Somehow, my brother was WAY ahead of my TV feed (and he was just watching on TV, too), and so he texted me, “You have got to be fucking kidding me” as Noel took the first ball. So I had to wait through the next pitch, knowing it LIKELY was going to be a home run, but not knowing for SURE (like maybe it was a bad error or something). It was not a fun experience.
In any event, whatever, it was one of the most unlikely playoff losses in baseball history (the Guardians were down to a 1% chance of winning after the double play in the ninth, the same odds as the Mets in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. There presumably have been bigger comebacks than that, but I can’t think of any that beat 1%. Certainly not the David Freese game in the 2010 World Series, since the Cardinals only had one out when their rally began, and when it got down to two outs, they had runners on already. I bet there HAS been a postseason game where a team scored THREE runs with two outs and nobody on, but I can’t think of any examples of something like that, so I think that this might honestly have been tied for the least likely playoff loss ever.
And, you know, isn’t that just kind of stupid? You’re up two runs, a bloop and a blast isn’t THAT unlikely. Hell, the THREE runs the Guardians scored to beat the Yankees in Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS was pretty bad, too, ya know?
That loss, by the way, should help put things into perspective. That was a tremendous comeback by the Guardians to put them up 2-1 in the best of five series, and the Yankees won. Here, the YANKEES lead 2-1. Dramatic comebacks are awesome and all, but they really don’t mean much for the next game.
Now, what DOES possibly mean something is that Luis Gil might suck tomorrow, and that’s a legit concern. Especially since Tommy Kahnle pitched nearly two innings, and Ian Hamilton is now out for the series (and Mark fucking Leiter or Marcus fucking Stroman might play key roles in relief tomorrow).
I still go back to the Lane Thomas at-bat where Weaver got ahead 0-2, and just started dicking around until it was 3-2 and he had to give Thomas something to hit, and Thomas hit it. The Noel pitch was just a bad changeup. Shit like that happens, but it shouldn’t have been a TWO-run home run, ya know? Or, of course, it shouldn’t have been a home run at all since the game should have already have been over. Weaver’s reaction to the homer is the featured image.
Oh well, great home runs by Judge and Stanton still, and it’s hard to be all, “Woe is us” about the closer giving up a home run when the “best closer in baseball” gave up TWO home runs, ya know? Shit happens, you just gotta turn the page. Just like how the Yankees turned the page after the Chuck Knoblauch game in 1998, how they turned the page after the 3-run meltdown in the 2022 ALDS, and how they turned the page after Game 2 of the ALDS in 2017 (all of those games were oddly enough against Cleveland. They sure have played Cleveland a lot). Of course, they never got over the midgies in 2007.
Now, a quick word about how insanely shitty Aaron Boone is. Jon Berti bats fucking SIXTH as the first baseman?!?! What the fuck was that? Anthony Rizzo comes in for DEFENSE in the bottom of the eighth inning, but Jon Berti bats with a runner on second and two outs in the top of the eighth!? Make that make sense! The fucking Guardians literally WALKED Rizzo rather than pitch to him in the 10th inning, and you’re going to tell me he wasn’t a better pick than Berti in the 8th? And then you bring him in for defense ANYWAYS. It was one of the dumbest decisions I’ve ever seen Boone make, and he makes so many dumb decisions.
If Boone were trying to help the Guardians win, the game wouldn’t have been managed much differently (again, I know Ian Hamilton getting hurt threw a monkeywrench into his plans, but to go to Tim fucking Mayza with a runner on second base?! Just idiocy).
Hopefully Stanton continues to bat cleanup in Game 4.
The lack of off days will hopefully make this loss be forgotten quickly.
this is comeuppance (overuse) for weavers appearance in game 2
also, what’d I miss??!!
I really don’t think overuse is an issue, but I will concede that it might be an issue to use him so much so that the Guardians hitters get used to him.
you’re wrong
Except he’s right.
exhibit a
My friend was also like 30 second ahead. Similar experience.
Boone is such a bad manager.
Hey, maybe stop running the bases like a bunch of assholes and, because of that, score more runs earlier in the game?
Doesn’t it seem virtually impossible that there exists a major league team where that happens this often? And then, even worse – it keeps happening (and then just keeps happening, nothing being done to stop it)?
you’re qrong
He 😉
Gut punch losses are not new to this team so hopefully they have learned how to bounce back.
Excellent point. Sadly, spirals are also familiar things with this team.
Not only did the idiot let Berti hit, it unless I’m misremembering, it was against a RIGHT HANDED PITCHER. Berti is a 34 year old utility infielder but Boone treats him like he’s a good hitter or a young hitter coming into his own.Most of Boone’s mistakes were forgotten after the two teams exchanged home runs but there were others.
Oh yeah, I definitely noticed the lefty righty issue, too. Just one of the most inexplicable decisions I’ve ever seen a manager do.
Ah, but they can’t play Jasson.
Both Judges and Stanton’s home runs were well hit but it looked for a moment like the fielders might have a play.
Both of Cleveland home runs were drop the bat and admire no brainers. How bad must’ve Weaver’s and Holmes pitches been to allow that kind of contact? They looked like home run derby pitches,
Now and for a while Catcher has been an even bigger offensive problem than left field or first base. A player can slump but Wells is Well beyond slumping. He looks like a very bad hitting pitcher at the plate. Can’t Boone or Rowson do anything not to make him an automatic out?
Yet the idiot used Wells to pinch hit last night rather than using the Martian or even Grisham. Does Boone watch the games? As it is now if Wells comes up in a big spot he needs to be pinch hit for not be a pinch hitter.
Yeah, Wells looks totally lost. It really looks like he can’t see the ball at all. He’s been great behind the plate though.
Whatever data the Yankees look at for hitters seems to be way off base and SLOW to change. They are pretty proactive (Holmes aside) with changing pitching roles/approaches, but every decision in terms of the lineup/hitter usage seems to lag way behind the on field performance.
I think there’s a lot more room for bad luck on the part of a hitter, but we’ve seen them hang guys out there for weeks, if not months as their PAs deteriorate in quality. Routinely expanding the zone and flailing at unhittable pitches is not a quality of luck. They’ve done it repeatedly to Volpe and now to Wells.
Volpe and Wells, maybe Rice, are serious indictments of Boone and his hitting coaches. As Judge’s personal hitting coach said “The Yankees offensive player development is terrible.”
Absolutely. And when you say “deteriorate,” you clearly mean “drop off a cliff.” They don’t hit badly – they actually don’t hit at all. In all my years of watching baseball I don’t remember this being a typical thing. It looks bizarre, and leaving them in like that seems no less inexplicable.
petrus is wrong
Updated series prices at FD:
NYY -410 (78.1% implied)
CLE +310
NYY in 5 or 6, each +210
My fair prices:
NYY -268 (72.8%)
NYY 4-1 +298
NYY 4-2 +263
FD WS prices:
LAD -135
NYY +145
CLE +1000
NYM +2200.
LAD over NYY: +140
NYY over LAD: +180
My early pass at a LAD/NYY WS:
LAD -134 (57.3%)
Most likely exact outcomes:
LAD 4-2: +426
NYY 4-3: +594
That loss reminds me of game 3 in 2009 at Anaheim. Hopeful that the next 2 or 3 games play out the same way.
I want to point out just how close this game was to being one of the best wins in living memory.
In fact, the worst thing about this game was suddenly being deprived of such an incredibly awesome win, the kind we’d remember for decades to come.
Given that, maybe we shouldn’t think it a full-blown disaster.
Fair point. It really sucks that we don’t get that kind of comeback win to enjoy.
Also, we get to see whether momentum is a thing or not. The Indians are clearly the inferior team so the Yankees SHOULD still win, unless the magic of last night’s comeback propels them to somehow play better.
wrong
i’ve been beating the horse on rizzo’s d all season. it has slipped. leaving berti in to hit and then pulling him for rizzo was crazy.
if rizzo is hitting, then great. otherwise he’s a liability.
verdugo (i know ill catch shade here) is the same. he’s looked fine lately but the glove isn’t worth the juice.
they need to go up big early so i can enjoy the game.
So, they’ll need 3 errors, and several WP/PB, and a catcher interference to ‘go up big early’.
Boone has used one PH all series and he chose the guy who’s hitting the worst on the team not only in the playoffs but also in September. There was never a spot to use The Martian for Berti or even for Wells. Cleveland has used several pinch hitters including Noel. In all fairness Cash didn’t give Boone much.
I can’t believe Dominguez hasn’t hit once in the postseason. He is potentially their 5th best hitter right now. Add it to the list.
It’s nuts, he used Wells hitting 080 and 120 for September to hit for Trevi instead of The Martian.
Kay said “if the manager gets the game to his closer in the 9th, he’s done his job.” No matter how many blunders he might’ve made previously that cost the Yankees run(s) or gave Cleveland runs?
Yankees hitting 150/443 for the post season RSIP, of the teams not swept in 2 their OPS is better only than the Brewers and their BA is better only than Detroit. RISP 2 outs an unbelievable 121/377. That’s Austin Wells bad.
RISP Jazz 0/8, Judge 0/6, Waldo 0/4, Wells 1/9, Volpe 0/3, Gleyber 1/7, Stanton 2/9, Verdugo 2/8, Soto 2/4
Their approach in those situations is poor. What I say: RIP, RISP.
And that’s at least partially on Boone and Rowson.
Mets defense vs. Yankee baserunning: Who ya got?
(Lupus, if it’s an option.)
Out of the frying pan into the fire, Wells hitting 8th, Jazz 148/503 hitting cleanup, Rizzo at 1B. Just effing hit Stanton after the three best OBP hitters on the team.
No other organization would have Jazz hitting fourth. They are unserious.
Wells has been great behind the plate, and even if you don’t think he’s coming out of this funk anytime soon (he’s certainly overall a better hitter than Trevino), he’s the best catching option. I mean, you wouldn’t want him higher in the batting order now?
Rizzo at 1B – cute, because of those plays yesterday. But he’s been hitting. I’d put him at first over the other options.
Yes, I’d bat Stanton 4th, but… maybe they’re just trying something to get Jazz to snap out of it?
Yes Wells has to play. I would definitely start Rizzo. The only thing I feel strongly about is Stanton cleaning up.
That said there could be situations where I would hit for Wells.
Jazz cleanup is certainly 1 of the 9 lineup positions he can occupy. What an idiotic move.
Mets showing how to hit w/RISP in the third inning. WOE is us.