December 11, 2024

168 thoughts on “ESPN.com: Juan Soto Signs With Mets for 15 years/$765 million”

  3. Ohhhh…okay, apparently there are escalators that can easily bring the deal to MORE than $800 million. That’s a whole other story. Fair enough. So the Mets DID have a much bigger offer, and they were probably prepared to go even higher if need be.

    That was the big fear, that Cohen wasn’t going to let money stop him.

  7. There goes my interest in this team. Judge + Soto is pretty exciting. Judge + whoever Cashman gets is decidedly not.

    I guess if Cohen really had no limit then they didn’t have a chance, but dang, you’d think Soto would take into account what Judge does for his seasonal line and go with the Yankees if it was remotely close. Guess it wasn’t.

    2. Yeah, it’s like I said yesterday, what is “close” when you’re at this financial level? I would think it would be within $20 million or so, but I guess Soto felt otherwise.

    1. Soto was cover for the inevitable Judge decline. But as I said, Boras always steers his clients to the biggest bag of $$$$$.

    2. Oh, true, but that’s why you sign other good dudes now to carry them until they can sign the next major free agent hitter. Presumably either Vladdy or Kyle Tucker in 2026.

    3. reservedly, I disagree. Yankees just have to be more animalistic and be more active on the trade front

  11. Maybe they really just go all in on pitching, as the two best free agents NEXT season, Tucker and Vladdy, are also the guys at the positions that they can get hitters THIS year (Walker and Santander).

    I think Santander is sadly very necessary to replace Soto’s power. Bregman, Santander, Santana (on a one year deal), and either Burnes or Fried makes sense. Maybe Scott, too, to set up Weaver (and bring Kahnle back).

    1. Bregman 3B
    2. Judge LF
    3. Santander RF
    4. Stanton DH
    5. Jazz 2B
    6. Dominguez CF
    7. Santana 1B
    8. Wells C
    9. Volpe SS

    If Dominguez or Wells develops, then you really have something, and hell, maybe Volpe can surprise them.

    2. Agreed on Santana, very good glove, can help Rice learn the position and platoon with Rice as well.

      Pass on Santander.

    3. I don’t love Santander, either, but the guy is clearly a pretty darn good hitter, and the team is going to need some power with Soto’s 41 homers being gone.

      I guess they could make a trade, but who is even available?

    7. jazz in cf, durbin 2b, breg 3b. trade gil, Schmidt, rodon, Nestor. sign fried and Burnes, replenish farm so as to gut it at the deadline. also sign 2 good rp

  13. Figure, short-term-wise, they probably have about $90 million to spend.

    Santana – $10 million
    Bregman – $26 million
    Fried or Burnes – $30 million
    Scott $19 million
    Kahnle $6 million

    I don’t love Jazz in center, but it might be their best move.

    Bregman is a must at this point, I think. He’s a 4 bWAR player with excellent defense, and typically an outstanding OBP (he slumped in 2024, which IS worrisome), and we know he can hit in the playoffs. That’s half of Soto’s 8 bWAR right there.

  15. What I like about Teoscar and Bregman also is that they’re obviously both guys who have shown they can come through in the playoffs.

    They were worth about 8 bWAR together last year. That goes a long ways to making up for Soto, and you hope that the young Yankees increase the team’s bWAR, as well.

  18. Why not go Burnes AND Fried/Crochet? If they do that, they have really valuable trade chips.
    I’m kind of in on jeff lee’s approach. (Although it’s got to be easier to find a big-hitting outfielder, Chisholm’s bat is a lot less valuable in the outfield.)

    1. an understated asset is the Yankee development apparatus. by acquiring upside mid-to-low level prospects (with team control and w/o 40 man implications!), building them up for a few months, then trading at the deadline the Yankees would essentially have a two swathes of chips – mlb talent (gil, rodon, Stanton, Cortes, Schmidt) and milb talent (current and acquired). the Yankees could them acquire whoever they want, int pool money, and even more milb talent. Now if they sign sasaki…

  21. Eh, oh well. maybe a bullet a dodged at that price. Good on Hal for taking it that far I guess. I probably fear the overreaction more than losing out on Soto.

  22. Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the club is expected to make a “strong push” for free agent first baseman Christian Walker after previously expressing interest in him earlier this winter.

    Trust the process.

    1. I really wish Walker didn’t require a draft pick. With that in mind, I think I might actually be leaning back towards Santana.

  23. Honestly, what bothers me the most isn’t that Cohen outbid the Yankees. It’s the the Cashman and the front office honestly thought that if they trade for a top talent, and that top talent plays here for a year, that there is no way they would walk away from that. The idea that the Yankees deserve some sort of discount from players because they are the Yankees is a level of delusion that really worries me. I really hope this wakes them the fuck up and they stop thinking “The rest of baseball has caught up to us” and they realize that “The rest of baseball is laughing at us for thinking we are still at the top.”

    1. I mean, I think that’s pretty unfair. The Yankees offer was nearly identical in guaranteed money.

    2. It was also $51M AAV vs $47.5M AAV. It’s not really that close, even if you ignore the escalators.

    1. Slightly above average. The only good thing to come of losing Soto is getting Judge out of center.

    2. I mean in a very obvious con they could sign a below avg defender, stick them in rf, thereby boosting their def value, then trade them under the auspice that they’ve improved defensively

  25. Is Bellinger a good centerfielder at all?

    Last year (according to OAA) he was neutral, overall for his career he seem to be average to above average, most years.

  26. Bellinger then makes a TON of sense, since he’s short term money that the Cubs seem to be trying to get rid of for whatever reason. He allows Judge to move off of center (and become a POSITIVE in right instead of a liability in center), and makes it so that Dominguez doesn’t have to play center, either (and maybe Dominguez develops to the point where his defense is okay out there if he DOES have to play center). He gives them a lefty bat to bat in front (or behind) of Judge. And his ability to play a decent first base gives them freedom depending on which of the two big names they get NEXT season between Tucker and Vladdy.

    So I think Belli has got to be the move. Belli, Bregman, Burnes (just for the Killer B’s thing).

    First base, I’m torn. Walker is an excellent defender and a great hitter, but I don’t think you can sign him short term. And I think they should be keeping deals as short term as possible to free up space for Vladdy or Tucker next season to play the role Soto was going to play, the “guy” who steps up as Judge inevitably declines (if The Martian could be that, then that’d be amazing, as well, of course).

    1. I don’t think tucker will age well. he’s stiff as shit already. vlad Jr is a bit unmotivated often, but when on a superlative hitter

      I don’t get the oversight w rice. dude can take. defensively he’s matsui at present.

      Also, bellinger has so many holes in his swing

    3. I guess it depends on how much of the contract the Cubs are picking up and/or what we have to give up to get him. Bellinger… it’s been a long time since his breakout season and his last 4 years have been more bad than good. I don’t mind him on the team but when we are talking about plan B, spending more than half of the $47.5M they were willing to spend on Soto, I’m not sure that’s a good use of the money.

    4. Where did this ridiculous “Judge is a liability in center” meme come from?
      It’s nonsense. He was careful for a while after the LA injury, but he make all the usual plays and a good amount of difficult plays. He’s a very good centerfielder. Not a liability, but an asset. And it increases the value of his offense. I want him in centerfield as long as possible.

    5. Savant has Judge fielding run value at 27 and his range in the 9th percentile, OAA in CF -6.

  27. Ha! New reporting is saying that Soto’s friends and a number of his family members were pleading with him to stay with the Yankees, but he was insistent on taking the highest possible offer. If that was the case, it was always going to be the Mets, then.

    2. That’s just pathetic. They may as well have had Sotheby’s auction him off on Pay Per View. Why waste everyone’s time.

  28. I could play several more seasons, hitting in front of Aaron Judge, or I could go where they give me slightly more money.

    I always thought Soto would choose the latter.

    1. Oh yeah, I’m sure he did offer to let them match. But I think they knew very well that a “match” would be brought right back to the Mets.

      Passan is the interesting one, in that he’s the only one saying stuff about Soto feeling the Mets had a brighter future. I tend to trust Passan, but isn’t that something you’d think the other people would have mentioned?

      Heyman out of nowhere is saying a security guard was mean to Soto’s mom at some point.

    2. Part of Passan’s thinking is that Cohen will spend absolutely whatever it takes whereas Hal will always have a cap.

    3. True, honestly, the Yankees had terrible luck with the Mets’ late season run. With all of that money coming off of their cap, how are they NOT the more appealing team? They almost made the World Series WITHOUT Soto!

    4. Isn’t that what all players say? Who admits to being a greedy SOB and simply wanting the most money?

    6. I really don’t get the hype on the Mets system. Pretty much every one of their top guys flopped in 2024. I’m not saying that they’re not better than the Yankees’ farm system, but I think we’re talking a matter of perspective, in that they suck less than the Yankees, not that they have a GOOD farm system.

      There are probably only ten or so outright GOOD farm systems, then it gets into a pretty nebulous territory.

    7. the year-by-year ranking of systems is also kinda silly. And the Yankees just turned a bunch of decently, but not SUPER highly ranked (except for Volpe, for 1 year) prospects into pretty quality MLB pieces.

    1. I don’t hate it, but I think Cashman likes the short term money on Belli more than having to lock up Teoscar for six years, where he’ll be a DH-only by year…three?!

      Belli, Bregman, and Burnes make a lot of sense, and then try to figure out first base.

      Belli and Bregman COMBINED takes you to roughly Soto’s salary.

    3. He’s definitely a better option than Santander, and he’s put up two legit very good seasons in the last four seasons, but he’s a shitty defender, and you’ll need to lock him up long term. I’d prefer they get shorter term options, with Bregman being the one guy I’m fine with them locking up for the rest of his 30s.

    4. Depends on the contract. How long term? The guy is 32. Hernandez swings hard and strikes out a ton. His defense is not good, but he has power and a live bat. It’s hard to be objective when every signee is going to be compared to Soto – which is unfair to everyone.

      This was from Andy Morales, so who knows, it might just be smoke, but the guy has been right before.

  33. Getting older, outside SP, doesn’t seem to be a good idea for the team moving forward. Some of those guys aren’t going to age well. Heck, Bellinger hasn’t aged well and he isn’t 30 yet.

  35. Yankees had 30.4 bWAR last season from their position players. Judge and Soto were responsible for 18.7 of that 30.4 bWAR.

    So if 30.4 bWAR is the goal (and I think that’s reasonable), let’s say Judge will be 8 to be safe (you can’t assume a 10.7 season again). So you need 22.4 bWAR among the rest of the team. Volpe is safely going to be 3 bWAR (hopefully more).

    So you need 19.4 bWAR. Jazz was 1.5 bWAR in two months. Let’s pencil him in as 3 bWAR.

    So you need 16.4 between left field, center field, DH, third base, catcher, first base, and bench.

    Last year’s 30.4 included a whopping -1.6 from LeMahieu, 0.8 from Verdugo, 1.8 from Gleyber, 0.2 from Rizzo, and -0.4 from Rice.

    This can definitely be achieved.

    The problem, of course, is that they should have had improvement on TOP of Soto bringing back his 8 bWAR if they had just signed him. Sigh.

    1. Interesting. 5 starters combining for 0.8. With the loss of Soto we need 6 starters to combine for 8.8. I think that would be doable for a GM who isn’t past his prime. Sigh.

    2. The solution is to start Grisham every day, and have the fans chant “We want Soto” during his every at bat. Guaranteed 5.000 OPS.

    5. They were 45-47 to finish the season. They made the World Series with a team with a lot of holes and got beat by a heavily injured team with basically no rotation at all. I’m not sure matching last year puts them at a top tier team in the league.

    6. They won 94 games with Clay Holmes tying a record for most blown saves in a season. They had the second-best SRS in baseball, behind only the Dodgers. Who else in the American League looks that good?

      At least Soto left the AL.

  36. Passan continues with the odd takes. He is now saying that the Yankees “might be better off at the end of the day” by not signing Soto. Okay, buddy, how about you just break stories. That’s the thing you’re known for, not your analysis.

    1. Dodgers. Big article today in the LAT about how much money the team was making from deals with Japanese companies. His endorsement money will be huge.

    2. He’d be third fiddle there. The mutts need starting pitchers. The Yankees have too much history, nobody goes there any more.

  40. Big article today in the LAT about how much money the team was making from deals with Japanese companies. His endorsement money will be huge.

    Thus, my proposal of a few weeks back that MLB will have to limit how many posted players any given team can have at a time.

  41. One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

    2. This is a competition I’m relatively okay with the Mets winning. I like Crochet a lot, and I DO love the fact that his cheapness helps them acquire more guys, but come on, he’s not THAT good.

    3. I hear his needlework is superior.

      He’s only had 219 IP in MLB. He was very good in 2024 when he threw 146 of those innings after being injured and having TJS in 2022.

  43. NY Post The Yankees shouldn’t be faulted for bidding a whopping $760M, but they wouldn’t budge on the suite. The Yankees felt they couldn’t give a suite to Soto when Judge pays for his suite, and even Derek Jeter paid. They were willing to
    discount a suite but not alter their precedent.

  44. Brian, I’m pretty sure that “Killer B’s” has already been claimed in New York history by the trio of Betances/Banuelos/Brackman, and also by the Wu-Tang Clan.

    I agree it would be nice to see the Yankees sign Bregman/Bellinger/Burnes, but I’d rather call them “Plan B”.

    (…Get it? Plan B…)

    2. (Crude joke about common approved and safe-yet-off-label indications for mifepristone here…)

  45. I’m bummed the Steinbrenners decided not to sign him, but more so I am happy for Soto. Good for him, I hope he doesn’t regret the contract and I’m glad I got to watch him in pinstripes for a year.

    3. unless the brined corpse of Hank comes back ala weekend at Bernie’s, I think it’s just hal and the sponges

    4. Via Wikipedia:

      According to Jennifer, the family wants to own the team for “eternity”.[13] Hal said the family had begun discussing future plans for the family’s involvement in the franchise, and that several of George’s grandchildren, including Stephen Swindal Jr, Robert Molloy, George Michael Steinbrenner IV, Julia Steinbrenner (George IV’s sister), and Katherine Steinbrenner (Hal’s daughter), have expressed interest in running the Yankees.[21]

      The links are all to stories from before 2020, so grain of salt and all.

    5. Jessica, Jennifer and Hank’s heirs get a cut of the money, but Hal is the only one in the family with any control over the team, including Jessica and Jennifer’s ex-husbands.

      Hal will likely eventually cede control to someone down the line, but at the moment, there is only one Steinbrenner in charge of the Yankees.

  46. acquire crotchet, sign roki, fried, bregman, and 2 rp, trade Stanton, gil, Schmidt, rodon, Cortes for elite mlb and milb talent, int pool $, and recent draftees. gut the farm at the deadline. acquire rule 5 susceptible talent presumably on the cheap, develop, and optimize 40-man.

  47. Levi Weaver, but for baseball
    ‪@threetwoeephus.bsky.social‬

    “Given the gap in bonus pool money is so negligible, my advice to (Sasaki) has been not to consider that as a factor, as compared to long-term arc of career.”

    Also mentioned that a smaller to mid-market team may be a better “soft landing … given what he’s gone through, with the media.”

    1. he’s obviously coming to the us for a reason – challenge – which comes in enumerable forms – professional, emotional, social, maturationally, et al. the money will be there, it’s more a matter of what he’s after, which I believe to be, in short, legacy, backward, laterally, and forward facing. it is for this reason I believe the Yankees are the team.

  48. MLB.com headlines:

    “In post-Soto world, all options now available for Yankees”
    Well, except for you know, Soto.

    “Is Alonso a potential option for Yankees?”
    Or “How to create the worst possible optics and shoot yourself in the foot, all in one easy move!”

  49. Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days

    I love that headline. “Yeah, sure, Max, we’re all waiting with bated breath.” Fried made more sense to me as a guy you get if Soto was returning. Burnes is the guy you get now that Soto is gone.

  50. Heyman confirms that the Yankees were never given a chance to match the Mets’ offer. I think what likely happened was that someone said something like, “The Yankees failed to match the Mets’ offer,” and someone interpreted that as “The Yankees were given the chance to match the offer.”

    As Heyman notes (and while I don’t love Heyman when it comes to peripheral stuff, like Soto’s reasoning for signing with the Mets sounds like pure PR nonsense, I tend to believe him on specific contract terms, since, you know, Boras), the Yankees obviously COULD have increased their offer, but the obvious implicit understanding was that Cohen would just increase HIS offer. The highest offer was always going to be Cohen’s.

    1. I see no reason to believe that at all. Why would Boras NOT keep going back and forth until one side stopped upping the ante? He’s be, you know – stupid, that’s the word. If he stopped it himself before that.

  51. I’m thinking Crochet has to be the top target.
    5 years younger than Burnes or Fried, the difference in money is ob viously crazy, and is he as good as those guys? I thought this was persuasive:
    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/three-reasons-white-sox-ace-garrett-crochet-is-the-most-desirable-trade-candidate-of-mlb-offseason/#:~:text=Among%20the%2081%20pitchers%20who,Crochet%3A%2035.1%25%20of%20batters%20faced

    And because Crochet doesn’t really add to your payroll, you can spend as much as you would otherwise – say, Fried – so that you can free up what you want to trade for Crochet.
    Cole, Fried and Crochet atop your rotation? Who’d want to face THAT in the playoffs?

    2. it’d be requisite to extend crotchet upon arrival similar to lindor and the mets, so the $ break isn’t quite what it seems imo

    3. That’s interesting. I would think Cash would look at it more like, “Hey, we’ll enjoy the two cheap seasons, and see if we want him long term.”

    4. How much can money be included in a trade deal, by the way?
      I have yet to hear that there’s a great player out there who can be gotten other than for “a lot of money” or “a haul of players.” Let’s take that as self-evident. They have more resources than most teams, and right now a real need. And the ability to take advantage of the savings that only a few other teams have. Somebody’s going to do it, and they need to make sure it’s them.

    5. But they DON”T have the resources in the farm system like some other teams do.

      The Red Sox can part with, like, two Top 50 prospects and still have two top 10 prospects.

    6. if they subsidize $7mm of rodons aav he’s suddenly a huge asset for the Sox. add Schmidt and you have the framework of a deal

    9. They’re not trading Dominguez or Volpe, I agree. But the others (including Schmidt) they could. Plus their actual minor leagues. Plus money to use… in short, they have more resources than most teams, just not all in the form of current farm system.

    1. Oh, totally, it’s near impossible. “Luckily,” they struggled at so many positions in 2024 that, say, getting Bregman and Teoscar for 4 bWAR each, and then just seeing Dominguez play well (to the tune of 3 bWAR), and adding almost ANY first baseman (who they were going to have to add even if they signed Soto) to give them even THREE bWAR probably improves their WAR over last season.

    2. 2024 Yankees were basically (all bWAR):

      Judge 10.8
      Soto 7.9
      Volpe 3.4
      Wells 2.5
      Gleybe 1.8
      Jazz 1.5 (in two months)
      Cabrera 1.3
      Verdugo 0.8
      Stanton 0.7
      Trevino 0.6
      Rizzo 0.2
      LeMahieu -1.6

      Assuming the additions are Bregman and Teoscar, you’re replacing LeMahieu, Rizzo, and Verdugo with presumably better players (Bregman, SOME first baseman, and Teoscar). It is reasonable to hope for Wells to improve on 2.5 (the guy wasn’t even the everyday catcher until, like, June), for Dominguez to show you he belongs, and for Jazz to continue with his 1.5 just prorated for a full season, and that’s a good team, even without Soto’s amazing talents.

      Shit could go wrong, of course, but I believe most projections will still like this team, provided Cashman brings in guys to the level of Bregman, Teoscar and someone decent at first base.

    3. IN THEORY they could be a better team without Soto than with Soto.
      That theory presumes that they have limited money, and that getting Soto would have prevented them from improving (or improving nearly as much) at a bunch of other spots.
      IF those things are true, and they go into this with that same level of willingness to invest and sacrifice, then it’s completely doable.
      _
      There’s also the fact that while talent concentrated in just a few players makes it possible to improve the team more with any investment you make, a team with talent distributed aroud a bunch of players is less vulnerable to a single chance injury.

    4. Fangraphs projects…
      Bregman at 3.9 WAR next year for $27
      Teoscar at 2.3 WAR next year for $23M AAV.
      Josh Bell at 1 WAR next year for $8M AAV.
      That’s a total of 7.2 WAR for $58M

      For reference that have Soto at 6.7 WAR for $51M.

  55. Bregman at 3.9 WAR next year for $27
    Teoscar at 2.3 WAR next year for $23M AAV.
    Josh Bell at 1 WAR next year for $8M AAV.
    That’s a total of 7.2 WAR for $58M

    For reference that have Soto at 6.7 WAR for $51M.

    I think Teoscar beats that, but yeah, otherwise, I think that’s reasonable enough, and that’s really not that far off from Soto, right? So they’d still have money to spend. For instance, they could go out and get Walker instead of Bell.

    But I absolutely agree that the best case scenario for this team in 2024 was just bringing Soto back.

    1. It’s not insignificantly more than Soto, and for just a bit more money.
      Of course, it also take up three of your nine spots in the lineup to get there, rather than just one.

  56. Q: do you think the Yankees offer for Soto was on paper or just verbal?

    Because if it was just verbal, as soon as Soto signed for $765 if I was Steinbrenner I would have said “wow that’s $165m more than our highest offer!”

    At which point Cohen would have gone nuts on boras who would have sputtered that Stein is lying.,,that would have added a lot of fun to the rest of this offseason. And probably removed the Yankees from any future Boras client bidding wars who would reduce the costs of all free agents going forward….

    Hmmmm

    2. Not 100% certain NYA would be willing to cut itself off from all Boras clients in the interests of annoying Cohen and entertaining us.

    1. he’s gonna be -10 to -15 defensive runs next year let alone down the line. they should stick him at 1b

    2. Well, I did mention his defense was bad when the trade went down, and he was bad. He hit well enough from the start to avoid the fans razzing him out here. I wonder how much slack Mets fans will cut him now that he will make a minimum of $305 million from the Mets off that deal (including signing bonus).

      Soto will earn a total of $305 million during the first five years of his Mets deal: $220M in salary and a $75M signing bonus, per source. That’s an AAV of $61M.

      https://x.com/Feinsand/status/1865983967364522338

  58. From a different point of view… I mean, it’s the Mets. Anyone want to bet that after all no-holds-barred, spend-for-the-stars, finally-beat-the-Yankees-at-something celebration… Soto somehow goes down with a freak injury ten games into the season? That’s be so like the Mets…

    3. Man, I love that deal. Look at that link comparing Burnes and Fried, a bit higher in this thread.
      Now if I can only convince them to go out and get one more of the two big pitchers left… I’d already be feeling pretty good about this team again.

  61. Also, I want to thank Boras for one thing: if the Yankees weren’t going to get Soto, I can’t express how happy I am that Boras didn’t drag it out until March. How miserably awful would THAT have been!

  62. RAB The Yankees add a starter. Makes it easier to trade Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt for, say, Kyle Tucker. Seems like they added an extra year or two to lower the annual luxury tax hit.

  65. Codify Baseball
    ‪@codifybaseball.bsky.social‬
    Statcast started tracking swords this season and Max Fried was the first pitcher to get six of them in one game. ⚔️

    Be a swinging strike
    Have the bat cross the front face of home plate
    Be an incomplete swing
    Have bat speed that is in the 10th percentile or lower
    Be no more than 20 mph in the final tracked frames

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