January 18, 2025

133 thoughts on “Yankees.com: Yanks trading for closer Williams from Brewers (source)”

    1. Starting pitching IS at a premium, which is why they were able to acquire one of the, what, three best closers in all of baseball for a mediocre starting pitcher.

    3. “Just a reliever” is something we say, I think, because relievers are notoriously volatile.
      This guy hasn’t been.

  2. I dislike trading prospects for reliever rentals. I don’t get it and I don’t care if there are proprietary internal metrics that suggest relievers are much more valuable than people think.

    Develop relievers, get them 30 saves and then send them on their way before they inevitably implode. Mariano being the exception that proves the rule.

    1. That too. Seems like this package could have gotten a better return. Plus the Yankees are sending money!

    2. This guy’s ERA has been ridiculously good since 2019. He’s been crazy consistent.

  4. I don’t mind the overpay because obviously, Cashman is dealing with a budget, and he likely couldn’t afford to get two position players and Tanner Scott, so he instead addressed the bullpen with this move, getting one of the three-four best closers in all of baseball (figure it’s Clase, Hader, Williams, and Helsley, and the first three guys are the only ones who have done it consistently).

    Next season, with money off of the books, he’ll have more room to re-sign Williams if that’s the route they want to go.

    1. I basically see the deal as a Burnes for Williams deal w Nestor as the sweetener. solves a big problem this year

  7. Yeah, fuck, Tucker to the Cubs. Honestly, if the Astros were just looking to compete this season, Suzuki and Parades makes a lot more sense than a deal for Gil and prospects.

    Oh well, they’ll have to wait a year to acquire Tucker.

    2. Yeah that rumored Yankees package seemed much better. But I guess was lighter on MLB players

    1. Maybe because a one-year rental, especially without an extension, but even with one, isn’t worth nearly what people were talking about. I’m guessing the Cubs and Yankees saw that, which is why they only got this. I’m guessing the Yankees weren’t offering Gil and prospects – which would be the obvious explanation for why the Astros didn’t choose that package.
      And that would have been a ridiculous thing to do. Gil… and prospects TO NYA might have made sense – and then only if they had an extension. Unless the extension were at a significant discount, of course, but it wouldn’t have been.
      It’s a one year rental. 5 years of control for a starting pitcher is worth a ton.

    2. Aaaaaand apparently it IS the case that the Yankees were not offering that silly package. Explaining therefore why the Astros didn’t chose it (and what they did choose).

    1. stress fractures are serious in the moment, but with rest aren’t a major long term concern.

    2. Gil controlled for 5 seasons for a one-season rental of Tucker with no extension?
      Or Gil controlled for 5 seasons for Tucker at what you could sign him for next season without losing Gil?
      It’s a tough choice.
      Or not. I’d probably do the latter. I definitely wouldn’t do the former.

    3. Yeah, I’d want the extension. But I also generally have a feeling we just saw Gil’s best season.

    4. I think it’s a fair question of whether you’d trade Gil plus someone like Lombard for Tucker. I would, but I could see the argument for not doing so. But yes, if the deal was mostly Gil and filler, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

      I suspect the Astros just always wanted Parades as the highlight, since he was an All Star just last year and replaces Bregman nicely, with Cam Smith being the big prospect get in the deal, and Wesnecki for the bullpen.

    5. Brian – WITHOUT the extension?
      And having just watched what happened to Soto, who didn’t accept any kind of extension but insisted upon reaching free agency – you think he was agreeing to an extension?
      Or do you mean you’d have traded 5 years of cost-controlled Gil in a heartbeat for the 1-year rental?
      Clearly the Cubs didn’t offer that much. Or the Yankees. Or anyone else, given that they took what the Cubs gave them. The league isn’t seeing that as being as valuable as the two of you think.
      You might be right about Gil, of course. But it’s still true that nobody out there was offering the Astros that level of compensation.

    6. Cam Smith would be the Yankees’ #2 prospect. A third baseman who was an All Star just last year (and is under team control for the next three seasons) and the #73 overall prospect in baseball, plus a decent enough relief prospect, is a significant offer.

    7. cubs massively overpaid. Yankees shouldn’t follow them off the cliff. hoyer intrigues me… as a person. he’s like dombrowski and preller and Steve phillips

  11. Why would the Cubs even TRADE Bellinger at this point? Can’t they just DH Suzuki now? Happ in left, Bellinger in center, and Tucker in right. I guess if they think Crow-Armstrong could be an everyday center fielder, they might not want to keep Belli (as Busch must be set at first base).

    2. But I thought the idea was that they needed to trade him to free up the money to get other guys, but they just acquired Tucker when Tucker is still pretty cheap (he makes less than $16 million). So it seems weird to me that they’d still feel like they need to trade him.

      I guess that’s a good sign that Tucker WILL make it to free agency, at least!

    1. Then again…

      Happ LF
      Tucker RF
      Suzuki DH
      Busch 1B
      Swanson SS
      Crow-Armstrong CF
      Hoerner 2B
      Amaya/Kelly C
      Mastrobouni 3B

      is not an awful lineup, either.

  13. Kevin Alcantara would ALSO be the Yankees’ second-best prospect, which kind of stings, no lie (but Rizzo was obviously really good for the Yankees that season, so I can’t really complain, all said and done).

  16. Athletic
    Law on Durbin:
    “The Yankees talked up Caleb Durbin after he had a nice AFL performance, with Aaron Boone pretending Durbin might be their second baseman to start the year, but this trade shows that was all a smokescreen. Durbin can run, and he can put the ball in play, but he has next to no power. His average exit velocity in Triple A was 83 mph, his Barrel rate was just 3 percent, and his EV50 (the average exit velocity of the top 50 percent of his batted balls) was 92.3, which would have ranked last in the majors by almost 2 mph.
    Durbin is 5-foot-6 and already maxed out, so I’m skeptical that he can add any strength to improve his contact quality. He’s played all three skill positions on the infield and dabbled a little in left and center, but doesn’t have the arm for shortstop or third. He might be a good last guy on the bench because he has some speed and puts the ball in play at such a high rate (his strikeout rate in Triple A last year was just 9.9 percent), but I don’t see anything more.”
    .
    On Williams:
    “Pre-2024, Williams was wildly successful because of his “airbender” changeup and huge extension of 7.6-7.7 feet toward the plate. After his return from the back injury last year, that extension dropped to 7.3 feet, still in the top 10 percent of all MLB pitchers but back to where he was mechanically in 2020-21. His changeup was still devastating, with even more tumble in 2024 than in the previous two years, balancing out some of the lost deception from the reduced extension over his front side.
    Because his out-pitch is a changeup, he’s shown very little platoon split in his career, holding left-handed batters to a .168/.293/.268 line. A full season of Williams would have been better than any Yankees reliever’s season in 2024, and whether he throws the ninth inning or works in higher-leverage spots earlier in games, he does make them better.”

    1. if durbin becomes a 2 war avg player that’s pretty valuable. he can do so on his walk rate p + (by default) high contact rate + plus base running and speed + non-suck defense. he’s the right age and has been cooked appropriately. id imagine he’ll be a 2-2.5 war player w a 3 war at some point. that’s a quality player.

      And a $4.5mm aav cheaper Nestor for a year. That’s why the Yankees got Williams bc of the surplus value

    2. Not sure it’s worth talking in terms of AAV when both players are signed for… one year 😉
      But sure, Nestor’s likely to give them more WAR because he’ll pitch more. But if you’re building the Yankees, you can’t not consider leverage. I love Nestor, he’s awesome to watch and to root for, but I doubt many here will argue against me when I say: Nestor’s fungible, there are a ton of pitchers like him; Williams isn’t.
      And yes, what you suggest with Durbin is entirely plausible, too. I’m not sure it’s really going to pan out that way, as zero of his at bats have been at the major league level. What you’re really describing, I think, is his ceiling – you’re talking about maxing out what he CAN do.

    3. I genuinely don’t think that’s his ceiling but his +-1sd.

      I like to use aav as the bots can scrape my comments easier… for the rays

    4. Listen, I’ve never seen the guy play, I’m going off of Law, the numbers, and a few articles. They could be wrong.

  17. I’m not really loving Bellinger. I mean Soto -> Tucker -> Bellinger isn’t exactly a fun journey.

    Last year they had a lot of holes in the lineup. I mean even Volpe, you can tout his 3 WAR all you want, but offensively, he wasn’t good. With the players they lost, they have 2 holes in the OF, 3 IF holes with Jazz still being good but most likely regressing to his career numbers, a decent hitter but mediocre DH at DH, and a good (but only for his position) hitting catcher. It’s hard to see them really improving a ton with what is out there. Jasson better be Gary Sanchez rookie good.

    1. Jazz can be improved by taking into account what you’re taking into account at DH – move him to 2nd and he’s better by definition.
      If they then get a good (even if not great) 3B, they’re improved. If they get a good 1B, which I hope and think they will, they’re improved a lot, because they sucked so badly at 1B. We might not be ecstatic about, say, Arenado, Bellinger and Walker, but by getting rid of black holes, and with at least the potential for elite production, they make this a damned fine team.
      Then you hope for improvement from Volpe, Wells and Dominguez, and I think you’re likely to get it in at least one of them… that’s a good team.

    3. I agree that I don’t love Bellinger either. I am fine with him on TOP of other moves, but not as the main move. You’re absolutely right that the drop off from Soto to Tucker to Bellinger is SIGNIFICANT.

      I think we’re still at a spot where we need to see what they end up doing. At the moment, I agree that the lineup likely will SUCK, but there is still plenty of time, and some impressive guys still out there (Bregman, for instance, is such a perfect fit).

    5. It was widely speculated that at $47.5M, that would have been it for the Yankees if they landed Soto. Given they spent $27.5 on Fried, how much do they have left? I know some went to Williams. I’m sure the Cubs will eat some of Bellinger’s salary but can they get Arenado, Bellinger and Walker?

    6. The year that I think we sadly need to compare to is 2014, where Hank and Hal wanted to cut the payroll to under the luxury tax. They cut salary in 2013 ahead of the plan to get under in 2014. Then they missed the playoffs in 2013 (in great part due to the pay cuts after 2012, like getting outbid on Russell Martin by the PIRATES, leading to Chris Stewart being their main catcher), and then lost Cano, and the Steinbros suddenly authorized spending that took them well over the luxury tax.

      So I think we’ll see a similar thing, where they’ll temporarily agree to go over the Cohen tax in 2025 to avoid hearing shit about it.

    7. Cash has a lot of work to do. Maybe he believes DJ still has a pulse and can play quasi regularly somewhere.

    8. It’s not even REMOTELY an excuse, since, well, it’s a sign that he’ll likely NEVER be healthy, but it was at least SOMEwhat nice to hear that LeMahieu was playing hurt all last season. It is, of course, ABSOLUTELY MORONIC to play a season hurt, but it at least perhaps suggests that he doesn’t actually suck that much. Except, again, he’ll never BE healthy, so they better not plan on him starting at second or third.

    9. I mean dj as the 26th man isn’t that big of a deal so long as Cabrera gets pas ahead of him. either respect is building a trade chip. if I squint I can see a DJ trade if he’s played against 4/5 starters every 5th day or so. eat $5-8mm aav and suddenly you don’t have to release him

    12. PW – I expect Jazz (offensively) to be a slightly better Gleyber. They’ve been very similar. But yes, I had him at 2B

      BC – Unless they win, I expect them not to rest until it is clear Cole and Judge are in thier decline. At 34 and 33 respectively, I can’t see them wasting one of the final years of their window by resetting.

    13. I don’t think you’re wrong, but note that they didn’t reset in 2015 or 2016, either, ya know? They waited until 2018 to reset.

      I think the plan was to reset in 2014, but then they sucked in 2013, so they pushed it of until 2018 (or 2019, I don’t remember the exact year they reset).

      Similarly, the plan was definitely to re-sign Soto and then cheap out on the rest of the team to keep under $300, but now that he’s gone, Hal knows he needs to spend more to make it up.

      Where it gets interesting is that I think the plan is clearly to get Tucker next season, so that’s why it gets tricky, as I don’t think Cashman wants to add too much longterm money.

  19. “I agree that the lineup likely will SUCK”

    Brian, didn’t you JUST project a line up and step back to say – wow, that’s a pretty awesome team right there?

    2. My projection included them adding multiple players. RIGHT NOW the team sucks, and until they add guys, I can’t say they won’t suck. They will hopefully not be starting this current lineup, though, which is, right now…

      Volpe SS
      Judge RF
      Dominguez LF
      Jazz 2B
      Stanton DH
      Wells C
      Grisham CF
      Cabrera 1B
      LeMahieu 3B

      That’s a shitty lineup.

    3. JL’s off the meds again, I see. Can you just NOT start doing this again?
      Maybe not.

    7. I thinks it’s because I’ve had so many drinks tonight but I’ve decided to make my semi-annual comment. (I’ve never been sure what semi- meant. Is that twice per or what.)

      I think Brian commented that the team looked pretty good after the ZIPS projection. Not sure if he was actually saying the lineup looked good.

      I also agree that Jeff runs hot and cold. Their analysis is often a good contribution to the discussion. Their non sequiturs and “jokes”, not so much

    8. Yeah, exactly, The team overall looks pretty good because of the pitching. I even said that I was pleased with the projections specifically BECAUSE I thought something along the lines of, “Imagine if they add a couple of hitters to that team!”

      Because this lineup right now is NOT good.

    1. Yeah, I agree. If they could add 2 at 1b/3b and keep Jazz at second I could see running an OF of JD/Grish/Judge and seeing how it’s going or if you can promote someone / make a trade.

      The lineup has been too short for too many years and I still like the ideal of upgrading a few positions instead of just having one insane bat in Soto anyway.

      If the Cubs take back Stroman….

    3. Yes, Dominguez actually being at least a 3 WAR hitter is a HUGE part of 2025. Heck, that would have been the case even if Soto DID return (since they wouldn’t have added anyone else had they resigned Soto).

    1. His first two years he was pretty good offensively. Did the Yankees ruin him? Should Volpe have made strides his second year? Will Wells be more September/October than July/ August? What about Gary Sanchez? Since Judge who are the young Yankee offensive successes?

    2. i think gleyber was lazy in milb. maybe you can’t coach a player like that?

      we’d also have more successes if we kept a few guys that sort of worked out like estrada / josh smith, not to excuse busts like Clint.

      Maybe it’s still better to get rid of a player a year early than a year late?

  26. Do you think Santander could play a passable first base? Looking at his numbers, he’s actually a pretty darn good hitter, but he can really only play right field, and he’s TERRIBLE in right field.

    He was worth almost 4 bWAR as a hitter last year, and gave away over a win of that on defense. Presumably he would give up less on defense at first base, no? So I wonder if him playing first base would be a way to get more value out of him.

    1. Looks like he started seven games at first base for the Orioles just two seasons ago. So maybe it’s actually a realistic possibility? Obviously, he wouldn’t be a GOOD first baseman, but I’m much more interested in good defense at the more important positions like third and second.

    2. That is probably exactly what Cashman is thinking but ideas like this are partially to blame for our fundamentals always being terrible. Getting unathletic players who are bad on defense and/or playing out of position…. why?

      I get we have a lot of holes that need to be filled, but can’t we fill them correctly over time for once and slowly start building a team instead of just plugging and playing “out of the box” solutions to problems to tray to make yourself look smart and then acting surprised they look like, to quote Jon, “a bunch of drunks.”

    4. Walker compares well with Santander, but he’s A. Four years older than Santander, and B. a righthanded bat, while Santander is a switch-hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate.

      I guess if you get Bellinger, Walker’s righty bat can hit cleanup, with Bellinger hitting third.

    5. Makes sense. But given his last 3 years (and he seems pretty athletic, see his defense), I’m not too worried about Walker for just more 3 years – and at a lower AAV than Santander, giving them room to do more now. Add in that he’s a good fielder, meaning he’ll improve the defense of the rest of the infield, and really the rest of the team, which they can definitely use… that’s got to be preferable to Santander… didn’t consider handedness. Probably should look at his splits and spray chart

    6. Interestingly, I don’t think Walker will really be hurting from an AAV perspective compared to Santander. I think teams are actually more into Walker than Santander at the moment.

    2. day 1 – I’m feeling liberated from said tyranny at rlyw.net
      cronin is ok, petrus and his apparatus is burdensome. clay is cool. Francis remains distant and, occasionally, enigmatic

    3. No idea what I did to set you off, but maybe you can just talk baseball, dude.
      You can see that nobody’s coming here your judgment of the partipants on this site.
      I mean, you obviously don’t like reading discouraging statements about you.

  29. This narrows it down. Heyman: Still a $ gap in Bellinger trade talk with Yankees and Cubs as of this minute. It’s a matter of “who blinks first,” if ever. Still could happen but Yanks also considering Alonso, Walker, C. Santana, J. Naylor, N. Lowe, probably

    3. I really once respected Heyman as a reporter, even WITH his huge conflict of interest, but he’s been CRAZY dogshit this offseason. It’s like he’s just tired of it all, and is just half-assing his way through everything.

    4. Wanting Juan Soto for Christmas and ending up with Pete Alonso would be like the year I asked for a Walkman and my mom got me a Soony Strolldude.

    2. I hear he is joining NPB to follow in the footsteps of his all-star brother Napa Cabbage.

    1. The problem, of course, with Teoscar, is that he’s a righty, just like Bregman.

      Perhaps Bellinger and Bregman make more sense, then.

      Bellinger, Bregman, and Carlos Santana could work as a combination of moves. Then that frees up first base in 2025 for either Bellinger to play if they get Tucker, or Vladdy if they get Vladdy (although I have to think it’ll be Tucker. I find it extremely hard to believe that they will be outbid by anyone on Tucker this offseason. He’s just way too perfect for the team as the guy who can take over as the tentpole of the team from Judge).

  33. They’re apparently at least kicking the tires on Goldschmidt. I guess he wouldn’t be the worst guy to have at the bottom of the lineup.

    I think Bregman is really the key. He’s the one dude who really solidifies the lineup, as he gives you Gold Glove caliber defense at third, lets you move Jazz back to second, and gives you a good shot at a 4 bWAR guy at the top of the lineup. You add Bellinger, and you could theoretically have your top four guys all be in the 3 bWAR range (with Judge, of course, being much higher). A lot of that turns on Dominguez developing, of course, but I just don’t see how that guy won’t hit given a fulltime gig.

    Bregman 3B (R) 3.5 WAR
    Judge RF (R) 8 WAR
    Belli LF (L) 3 WAR
    Dominguez CF (S) 3 WAR
    Stanton DH (R) 0.7 WAR
    Jazz 2B (L) 3 WAR
    Goldschmidt 1B (R) 2 WAR (?)
    Wells C (L) 3 WAR
    Volpe SS (R) 3 WAR

    That gives you 28 bWAR, which is not quite the 30 that you’d want, but the pitching will hopefully have improved, as well, so it might balance out.

    2. $5m coming from the Cubs, which lines up with the 2026 buyout. So the Yankees are effectively paying $27.5m for 1 year of Cody Bellinger if I’m reading the contract details right. I probably am not.

    3. ” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Bellinger has been told he’ll be playing center field for the Yanks”

      What is the point of Jasson Dominguez any more, may as well trade him. Unless he plays left?

    5. What’s the point of Jasson? Who else is going to bring extraneous “s”s to the team? Aaron Judge? He ain’t even got ONE s. Stanton? An APPROPRIATE number of “s”s.

    7. Aaron Judge has an S, but it’s in his middle name so nobody knows about it.

      He also has a lot of S’s with vertical slashes through them.

    8. Why would they tell him he’ll be playing one position when a huge part of what makes him useful to the Yankees is his ability to play a number of positions?
      Here’s hoping that’s just fluff.

  39. While neither Rice nor Cabrera seems like a great bat to pencil in every day, I think the biggest hole in the lineup right now is that nobody (other than Judge) gets on base enough to lead off.

    Chisholm 4
    Judge 9
    Bellinger 8 (/3)
    Stanton DH
    Wells 2
    Dominguez 7
    Cabrera 5
    Rice 3 (/ Grisham 8)
    Volpe 6

    Could really use an actual bat at 1B and/or 3B.

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