Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Rangers (18-23) @ Yankees (22-19) , Friday May 22, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(52 Comments - 5/23/2015 1:30:55 am)

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka passes first rehab start with flying colors
(18 Comments - 5/22/2015 4:37:19 pm)

The Correction
(48 Comments - 5/22/2015 12:30:19 am)

Yankees.com: Yankees’ promising start fizzles in loss
(6 Comments - 5/21/2015 9:25:25 am)

Yankees (22-18) @ Nationals (23-17) , Wednesday May 20, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(31 Comments - 5/20/2015 10:23:42 pm)

Washington Post: Zimmerman’s blast lifts Nats over Yankees in 10th
(20 Comments - 5/20/2015 5:26:02 pm)

Yankees (22-17) @ Nationals (22-17) , Tuesday May 19, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(79 Comments - 5/20/2015 7:17:21 am)

Yankees.com: Whitley elects to have Tommy John surgery
(20 Comments - 5/19/2015 4:32:57 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks blanked as Capuano struggles in KC
(34 Comments - 5/18/2015 9:02:40 pm)

CBS Sports: Jorge Posada bitter toward Yankees management in book
(22 Comments - 5/18/2015 3:35:21 pm)


Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, May 22, 2015

Rangers (18-23) @ Yankees (22-19) , Friday May 22, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Rangers: Colby Lewis (R) (50 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.17 FIP) vs. Yankees: Michael Pineda (R) (51.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.99 FIP)

Lineups
Rangers
1. Delino DeShields (R) LF: (.279/.405/.393)
2. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.234/.316/.445)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.340/.397/.488)
4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.259/.296/.416)
5. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.312/.382/.506)
6. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.224/.289/.280)
7. Leonys Martin (L) CF: (.208/.246/.308)
8. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.190/.300/.440)
9. Thomas Field (R) 2B: (.222/.300/.444)

Yankees:
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.290/.363/.427)
2. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.237/.271/.389)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.246/.346/.554)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.252/.377/.588)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.234/.293/.387)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.236/.283/.385)
7. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.182/.263/.339)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.214/.276/.250)
9. Slade Heathcott (L) CF: (—-/—-/—-)

Pretty cool to see Heathcott in the starting lineup, regardless of where his career goes from here.  Not as cool to see Beltran.  Or Drew.  Or Gregorius.  Or….

--Posted at 3:56 pm by SG / 52 Comments | - (0)



NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka passes first rehab start with flying colors

MOOSIC, Pa. — He threw 41 pitches, 25 of them for strikes against a Triple-A team. But all that mattered for the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka was that he made his pitches without pain or problems.

Feeling no discomfort, “not at all,” he said, Tanaka went three innings for the Yankees’ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre affiliate Thursday in his first rehab start. He gave up a double in a 12-pitch first inning, went through a 1-2-3 second inning and then required 22 pitches to get out of the third, in which he surrendered a single but struck out two.

“I felt pretty good out there. I was able to use all my pitches. So I felt pretty good,” Tanaka, speaking through a translator, said to a gathering of more than three dozen media types at PNC Field.

Final tally: three innings, two hits, no runs, no walks, two strikeouts. He hit 92 mph with one pitch and was consistently 90-91 with his fastball.

If I didn’t feel like this is all just delaying the inevitable, I might be happy.

--Posted at 8:22 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, May 21, 2015

The Correction

After their 11-5 win at Tampa Bay on May 11, the Yankees were 21-12.  They had outscored their opponents by 36 runs and had improved their CAIRO final 2015 win projection from 79 at the start of the season to around 86 wins.

Then came the correction. 

The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games, scoring 17 runs and allowing 39.  They’ve dropped to a final projected win total of around 82 wins now.  Here’s a little chart that conveys how their postseason odds have swung since Opening Day.

Date W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
4-Apr 79 83 673 679 12.5% 6.1% 6.9% 25.5%
11-May 86 76 695 665 27.7% 10.8% 8.7% 47.1%
21-May 82 80 681 675 20.2% 8.5% 7.9% 36.6%

W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

An optimist can say that the Yankees are still ahead of where they projected to be at the start of the year, despite a lot of fairly disappointing performances.  A pessimist might say that all the players that have played well so far are due to regress and that none of the players who have played poorly so far will play any better and that they have been somewhat fortunate in regards to health (Masahiro Tanaka notwithstanding).

The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.  The Yankees are probably good enough to remain on the fringes of contention for a while, because the AL East as a whole doesn’t appear to have any clearly great team.  As it stands now, this is how the CAIRO projects the rest of the season to play out in the AL East.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Rays 83 79 643 614 22.2% 8.0% 8.7% 38.9%
Yankees 82 80 681 675 21.0% 8.5% 7.9% 37.4%
Red Sox 82 80 760 760 20.2% 6.4% 7.0% 33.6%
Orioles 82 80 719 690 18.0% 7.1% 7.1% 32.1%
Blue Jays 81 81 775 732 18.2% 6.6% 7.1% 31.9%

It’s likely that we’ll see a much larger separation than that by season’s end, but I feel comfortable in saying that it’s still anyone’s division right now.  The Yankees had built up a bit of a cushion when they were 21-12 and it’s gone away, but they are still in a position to contend.

For now.

--Posted at 9:29 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Yankees.com: Yankees’ promising start fizzles in loss

WASHINGTON—Denard Span’s single broke a tie in the seventh inning and helped the Nationals edge the Yankees, 3-2, at Nationals Park on Wednesday night.

With the bases loaded, one out and left-hander Justin Wilson on the mound, Span singled to left field, scoring Wilson Ramos, who saw his hitting streak halted at 19 games.
Drew Storen struck out Alex Rodriguez with a runner on first to earn his 12th save.

That title could describe the Yankees season as it goes down in flames too.

I apologize for saying the Yankees would be under .500 by June 1.  They will actually be under .500 by May 25.

--Posted at 9:48 pm by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (22-18) @ Nationals (23-17) , Wednesday May 20, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Yankees: Adam Warren (R) (38 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.14 FIP) vs. Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann (R) (46.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.19 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.291/.366/.433)
2. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.236/.272/.386)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.258/.380/.602)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.228/.279/.382)
5. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.236/.284/.389)
6. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.188/.271/.350)
7. Chris Young (R) CF: (.264/.323/.538)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.204/.269/.241)
9. Adam Warren (R) P: (—-/—-/—-)

Nationals:
1. Denard Span (L) CF: (.327/.370/.510)
2. Ian Desmond (R) SS: (.244/.297/.369)
3. Yunel Escobar (R) 3B: (.333/.387/.404)
4. Bryce Harper (L) RF: (.336/.474/.737)
5. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 1B: (.242/.294/.418)
6. Wilson Ramos (R) C: (.311/.333/.410)
7. Tyler Moore (R) LF: (.211/.268/.421)
8. Danny Espinosa (S) 2B: (.267/.369/.476)
9. Jordan Zimmermann (R) P: (.125/.125/.188)

I see no reason to think the Yankees’ descent will end tonight.

--Posted at 3:04 pm by SG / 31 Comments | - (0)



Washington Post: Zimmerman’s blast lifts Nats over Yankees in 10th

The Nationals led 2-0 Tuesday night. Then they trailed 6-2. They homered three times but came up empty in key situations with men on base. They made big defensive plays to back five scoreless innings from the bullpen. And they finally got a clutch hit they needed against Andrew Miller, a pitcher who had allowed just three hits to the 70 batters he faced before Zimmerman stepped in with one out in 10th.

Zimmerman let Miller’s brutal sliders go and smashed a fastball to right for another walk-off home run. Miller hadn’t given up an earned run all season before the blast.

I was never on the Eovaldi bandwagon, so I’m not getting of it now.  He is what he is, and what he has been.  He’s a guy with a great arm who has been jettisoned by two separate organizations.  He’s not a hidden jewel that just needs polishing.

Mark it down.  The Yankees will be below .500 by June 1.

--Posted at 6:57 am by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Yankees (22-17) @ Nationals (22-17) , Tuesday May 19, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Yankees: Nathan Eovaldi (R) (41.1 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.10 FIP) vs. Nationals: Gio Gonzalez (L) (42.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 2.75 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.327/.411/.374)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.303/.380/.451)
3. Chris Young (R) RF: (.267/.330/.558)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.248/.366/.576)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.237/.290/.398)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.236/.285/.386)
7. Jose Pirela (R) 2B: (.238/.238/.286)
8. Stephen Drew (L) SS: (.177/.264/.345)
9. Nathan Eovaldi (R) P: (—-/—-/—-)

Nationals:
1. Denard Span (L) CF: (.333/.379/.527)
2. Ian Desmond (R) SS: (.239/.293/.348)
3. Yunel Escobar (R) 3B: (.326/.373/.399)
4. Bryce Harper (L) RF: (.338/.476/.729)
5. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 1B: (.243/.297/.405)
6. Wilson Ramos (R) C: (.314/.336/.390)
7. Danny Espinosa (S) 2B: (.275/.373/.490)
8. Michael Taylor (R) LF: (.250/.302/.438)
9. Gio Gonzalez (R) P: (.000/.000/.000)

You can only sustain a smoke and mirrors act for so long.

--Posted at 3:49 pm by SG / 79 Comments | - (0)




Monday, May 18, 2015

Yankees.com: Whitley elects to have Tommy John surgery

Yankees right-hander Chase Whitley has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery following a consultation with team physician Dr. Christopher Ahmad on Monday in New York. Ahmad will perform the procedure on Tuesday at New York-Presbyterian Hospital.

Whitley exited his start against the Rays last Wednesday in the second inning with what the team initially described as a “right elbow injury.” He underwent an MRI examination the next day in Tampa, Fla., and he revealed he had been battling discomfort for at least two starts.

“I have no regrets about it,” Whitley said after the MRI. “In my head, I want to pitch. I told you all from the time I got called up last year, I’m here to pitch. It just happened that way.”

I suspect that he likely would have needed TJS no matter what, but it sure doesn’t seem like a smart idea to hide discomfort in your arm.

Anyhow, naturally, I feel bad for Whitley. The Yankees rotation is in a fascinating state right now. It could be bolstered soon by the additions of Ivan Nova and Masahiro Tanaka or it, well, could not. We shall see.

--Posted at 6:03 pm by Brian Cronin / 20 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks blanked as Capuano struggles in KC

Right-hander Edinson Volquez tossed seven shutout innings and Salvador Perez homered and drove in two runs as the Royals stymied the Yankees, 6-0, on Sunday, taking two of three in the series at Kauffman Stadium.

Volquez was sharp from the onset, retiring the first 11 hitters he faced until Alex Rodriguez doubled. Volquez gave up just three hits, walked none and struck out five.

“He’s just been very consistent for us all season,” Royals manager Ned Yost said. “And today he was fantastic.”

Left-hander Chris Capuano made his 2015 debut for the Yankees after recovering from a right quad strain. Capuano went three-plus innings, giving up four hits and four runs.

Two straight walks by Capuano to Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer to open the fourth triggered a three-run Royals rally—Kendrys Morales, Perez and Omar Infante all delivered RBI hits in the inning.

While I would like to continue to point out the folly in “Esmil Rogers, Fireman,” the truth is that the offense did so poorly that it really didn’t matter how the pitching was. Hopefully Teix’s big toe contusion won’t be a problem (I am crossing my fingers that he will only lose the toe and not the whole foot).

--Posted at 2:34 am by Brian Cronin / 34 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, May 17, 2015

Yankees (22-16) @ Royals (23-14) , Sunday May 17, 2015 , 2:10 PM

Lineups

Yankees
1 Ellsbury CF
2 Gardner LF
3 Rodriguez DH
4 Teixeira 1B
5 McCann C
6 Beltran RF
7 Headley 3B
8 Drew 2B
9 Gregorius SS

Royals
1 Escobar SS
2 Moustakas 3B
3 Cain CF
4 Hosmer 1B
5 Morales DH
6 Perez C
7 Infante 2B
8 Orlando RF
9 Dyson LF

Chris Capuano makes his season debut today. Him pitching well sure would make the loss of Chase Whitley fairly meaningless. Plus, his pitching well would open up Adam Warren to return to the bullpen when/if Ivan Nova or Masahiro Tanaka return from the DL.

The off day tomorrow has given us the rare Sunday afternoon non-House Money lineup. Good to see. Some runs today would also be good to see.

Let’s go, Yankees!

--Posted at 12:46 pm by Brian Cronin / 32 Comments | - (0)




Friday, May 15, 2015

Yankees (21-15) @ Royals (22-13) , Friday May 15, 2015 , 8:10 PM

Lineups

Yankees
1 Ellsbury CF
2 Gardner LF
3 Rodriguez DH
4 Teixeira 1B
5 McCann C
6 Beltran RF
7 Headley 3B
8 Drew 2B
9 Gregorius SS

Royals
1 Escobar SS
2 Moustakas 3B
3 Cain CF
4 Hosmer 1B
5 Morales DH
6 Gordon LF
7 Perez C
8 Infante 2B
9 Orlando RF

So far, the Yankees are already trailing after a pair of doubles in the first inning off of Michael Pineda. I am not enjoying this correction.

--Posted at 7:34 pm by Brian Cronin / 71 Comments | - (0)



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