Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Rangers (40-59) @ Yankees (50-48), Tuesday, July 22, 2014, 7:05pm
(106 Comments - 7/23/2014 12:54:26 am)

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Acquire Chase Headley
(24 Comments - 7/22/2014 7:12:54 pm)

NYDN: Yankees commit five errors in 4-2 loss to Texas Rangers
(19 Comments - 7/22/2014 2:05:03 pm)

Rangers (39-59) @ Yankees (50-47), Monday, July 21, 2014, 7:05pm
(46 Comments - 7/22/2014 7:38:53 am)

NY Times: A Bloop Leads to a Blooper, Lifting the Yankees to a Sweep
(19 Comments - 7/21/2014 5:55:59 pm)

Reds (51-46) @ Yankees (49-47), Sunday, July 20, 2014, 1:05pm
(45 Comments - 7/21/2014 9:57:06 am)

Reds (51-45) @ Yankees (48-47), Saturday, July 19, 2014, 1:05pm
(50 Comments - 7/20/2014 12:23:43 pm)

Reds (51-44) @ Yankees (47-47), Friday, July 18, 2014, 7:05 pm
(18 Comments - 7/19/2014 11:20:00 am)

NJ.com: Yankees Midseason Report: Much needs to happen to save the season
(16 Comments - 7/18/2014 5:38:15 pm)

Yankees.com: Jeter goes out in style to fitting All-Star farewell
(78 Comments - 7/18/2014 9:36:46 am)


Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Yankees.com: Newcomer Headley Yanks’ walk-off hero in 14th

NEW YORK—In his first game as a Yankee, Chase Headley connected for a game-winning single in the 14th inning, lifting the Yankees to a 2-1 victory over the Rangers late Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

The decisive hit came off right-hander Nick Tepesch, the ninth Texas pitcher of the evening. Brian Roberts laced a one-out ground-rule double, and Francisco Cervelli singled through the right side of the infield to set up Headley’s flare to left-center field.

J.P. Arencibia had put the Rangers ahead in the top half of the 13th with a solo home run into the left-field bullpen off left-hander David Huff, marking the first run of the game.

The Yankees answered in the home half, as Brett Gardner greeted closer Joakim Soria with a double, advanced on a sacrifice and scored on Jacoby Ellsbury’s single to right field. After another hit, Soria got Brian McCann to hit into a inning-ending double play.

--Posted at 11:12 pm by SG / No Comments | - (0)



Rangers (40-59) @ Yankees (50-48), Tuesday, July 22, 2014, 7:05pm

TEX: Nick Martinez (#22, 23, RHP, 1-6, 5.10) vs. NYY: Chase Whitley (#39, 25, RHP, 4-3, 5.10)

Lineups
Texas
1. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF
2. Elvis Andrus (R) SS
3. Jim Adduci (L) LF
4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B
5. Leonys Martin (L) CF
6. J.P. Arencibia (R) 1B
7. Robinson Chirinos (R) C
8. Rougned Odor (L) 2B
9. Daniel Robertson (R) DH

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
4. Carlos Beltran (S) DH
5. Brian McCann (L) 1B
6. Kelly Johnson (L) RF
7. Brian Roberts (S) 2B
8. Francisco Cervelli (R) C
9. Zelous Wheeler (R) 3B

Yawn.

--Posted at 4:15 pm by SG / 106 Comments | - (0)



MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Acquire Chase Headley

The Yankees announced that they have officially acquired Chase Headley from the Padres. The Yankees will send Yangervis Solarte and minor league right-hander Rafael De Paula to the Padres in return for Headley and $1MM.

Headley, a lifetime member of the Padres, is hitting just .229/.296/.355 with seven homers this season, though he’s playing outstanding defense at third base, per both UZR/150 (+19.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (+7). Headley is earning $10.535MM in 2014, of which $3.97MM remains. He is eligible for free agency following the season.

I don’t get the point, but whatever.

--Posted at 12:51 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)



NYDN: Yankees commit five errors in 4-2 loss to Texas Rangers

On Monday night, it wasn’t easy being Greene.

A sloppy, five-error effort and a slew of lifeless bats caused the Yankees to drop a 4-2 game to the AL-worst Rangers in front of 45,278 in the Bronx. Rookie starter Shane Greene took his first career loss in his first appearance at Yankee Stadium in a game in which the Yankees had as many errors as hits.

“It was an ugly game on our part,” Joe Girardi said. “Our defense was bad, we weren’t swinging the bats particularly well. Their pitcher worked hard the first two innings and he ends up getting into the eighth inning. It was an ugly game.”

The Yankees (50-48) struck first with some small ball in the first. Derek Jeter drew a one-out walk, advanced to second on a balk and then to third on an infield hit by Jacoby Ellsbury. Carlos Beltran brought him home with a sacrifice fly. Ellsbury would later put the Bombers up 2-1 with a home run over the right field wall to lead off the fourth.

Nothing like losing to team that had lost 20 of its last 24 games.

I thought Joe Girardi stuck with Greene one batter too long, but I also figured that when Matt Thornton came in he’d blow it.  To be fair to Thornton, the hit that gave the Rangers the lead would likely have been fielded if the Yankees hadn’t put a Derek Jeter figurine at shortstop last night.  If you were to look at surface stats like ERA or FIP, Thornton has been okay this year, but if you look at his RE24 which estimates how his performances have changed the opposing team’s run expectancy he’s been pretty terrible (-5.21).  To put that in context, Dellin Betances’s RE24 this season is 22.67.

Again though, if this team had an offense it’s a game they probably would have won.  But they don’t.  So they didn’t.

--Posted at 8:52 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)




Monday, July 21, 2014

Rangers (39-59) @ Yankees (50-47), Monday, July 21, 2014, 7:05pm

TEX: Miles Mikolas (#36, 25, RHP, 0-2, 10.05) vs. NYY: Shane Greene (#61, 25, RHP, 2-0, 1.32)

Lineups
Rangers
TBA

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
4. Carlos Beltran DH
5. Kelly Johnson (L) 1B
6. Brian Roberts (S) 2B
7. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
8. Francisco Cervelli (R) C
9. Zelous Wheeler (R) 3B

Is tonight the night Shane Greene gets exposed?  Texas is injury-ravaged, but their team OPS+ of 94 blows away the Yankees’ OPS+ of 93.

--Posted at 3:43 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (0)



NY Times: A Bloop Leads to a Blooper, Lifting the Yankees to a Sweep

When a batter is facing a pitcher who throws 102 miles per hour, there is not really time for directional hitting. It is the kind of heat that sends murmurs through the crowd during warm-ups. The pop of the baseball when it hits the catcher’s mitt echoes an extra beat, and even major league hitters take notice of the radar-gun readings. At the plate, hitters just hope for the best.

They perhaps hope, as Brian McCann did, that the angle of the afternoon sun coupled with a light southerly breeze might play tricks on a languid pop-up to short right field and help it drop for a hit.

It does not happen often, but it happened Sunday to account for the Yankees’ winning hit in a 3-2 victory against the Cincinnati Reds at Yankee Stadium.

Reds closer Aroldis Chapman faced three batters in the ninth inning and threw 15 pitches that reached triple digits. But after a leadoff single by Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole second and advanced to third on a wild pitch, Chapman could not escape the inning with a 2-2 tie intact. He struck out Mark Teixeira to get one out before McCann blooped a 1-0 pitch into right that fell among three Reds fielders.

Much has been made of McCann’s recent performance since he’s hit .310/.333/.437 over his last 75 PA.  But I’d say that with his BABIP of .364 over that stretch and the relatively low isolated power and discipline in that data as well as the ridiculously small sample size of it I’m not all that convinced he’s turned the corner just yet.

That being said, I think he’ll be a significantly better in the second half.

The Yankees were fortunate to catch Cincinnati with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips out, but a sweep is a sweep.  Yay sweep.

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, July 20, 2014

Reds (51-46) @ Yankees (49-47), Sunday, July 20, 2014, 1:05pm

CIN: Johnny Cueto (#47, 28, RHP, 10-6, 2.13) vs. NYY: Hiroki Kuroda (#18, 39, RHP, 6-6, 4.10)

Lineups
Reds
TBA

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
5. Brian McCann (L) C
6. Carlos Beltran (S) DH
7. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
8. Brian Roberts (S) 2B
9. Kelly Johnson (L) 3B

I still can’t believe the 2014 Yankees scored a week’s worth of runs in one game.  Have the Yankees swept a series yet this year?  With Cueto going I don’t like their chances today.  As opposed to all the other days where I also don’t like their chances.

--Posted at 10:03 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, July 19, 2014

Reds (51-45) @ Yankees (48-47), Saturday, July 19, 2014, 1:05pm

CIN: Alfredo Simon (#0, 33, RHP, 12-3, 2.70) vs. NYY: Brandon McCarthy (#38, 30, RHP, 3-10, 4.80)

Lineups
Reds
1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Zack Cozart (R) SS
3. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF
5. Devin Mesoraco (R) C
6. Brayan Pena (S) 1B
7. Chris Heisey (R) LF
8. Donald Lutz (L) DH
9. Kristopher Negron (R) 2B

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
5. Brian McCann (L) C
6. Carlos Beltran (S) DH
7. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
8. Brian Roberts (S) 2B
9. Kelly Johnson (L) 3B

Alfredo Simon has a FIP of 4.34.  Brandon McCarthy has a FIP of 3.76.

Advantage Yankees!

--Posted at 10:34 am by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)




Friday, July 18, 2014

Reds (51-44) @ Yankees (47-47), Friday, July 18, 2014, 7:05 pm

CIN: Mike Leake (#44, 26, RHP, 7-7, 3.54) vs. NYY: David Phelps (#41, 27, RHP, 3-4, 3.94)

Lineups
Reds
1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Zack Cozart (R) SS
3. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF
5. Devin Mesoraco (R) C
6. Ryan Ludwick (R) DH
7. Brayan Pena (S) 1B
8. Chris Heisey (R) LF
9. Ramon Santiago (S) 2B

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
5. Brian McCann (L) C
6. Carlos Beltran (S) DH
7. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
8. Brian Roberts (S) 2B
9. Kelly Johnson (L) 3B

There was a time not long ago where the All Star Break seemed interminable. 

Now I’m sad it’s already over.

--Posted at 3:47 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)



NJ.com: Yankees Midseason Report: Much needs to happen to save the season

Disorder surrounds the Yankees.

High-priced bats have failed. Injuries have shredded the pitching staff. And there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the trade market who can ride to the rescue. They are a .500 team, and yet, they are contenders.

As the Yankees open the second half tonight in the Bronx against the Cincinnati Reds, they are 3 ½ games removed from the second Wild Card spot in the American League, and against the odds, still carry grand, Yankee-esque aspirations.

A tough climb awaits them, along with a nervous question. Will their knockout rookie, Masahiro Tanaka, and his ailing right elbow return this season? If not, sport’s most storied franchise may wind up out of the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time in twenty years, leaving the club with final drama: The countdown to Derek Jeter’s final game.

I don’t really like the Yankees’ chances over the remainder of the season, but I guess I could envision a scenario where they sneak into the postseason.  I think it will have to be done via winning the division, not through a wild card spot.  The Angels and Mariners are currently sitting in the two wild card slots and get to play more games against Texas and Houston teams that aren’t very good.  You could counter that by saying the Yankees get games against Tampa Bay and Boston teams that have similar records to Texas and Houston but I would argue that those records are misleading and both teams are better than they’ve shown so far.

Anyway, we’ll see what happens.  I am not expecting them to make the postseason this year, so I’d like to see a few things happen with an eye towards 2015.

1) Masahiro Tanaka comes back healthy.
2) Michael Pineda returns to the mound and finishes the season well
3) Robert Refsnyder gets called up at some point and shows enough to be penciled in as the starting 2B next season.
4) Luis Severino dominates AA and puts himself into the rotation picture for the tail-end of 2015.
5) David Robertson re-signed.

I’d also like to see Derek Jeter stay healthy and get up to sixth place on the all-time hits list.

What I don’t want to see and what I am very fearful of seeing are dumb trades that further mortgage an already shaky future for maybe a 10% chance at a 50% chance of getting into a postseason series.

--Posted at 9:22 am by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Yankees.com: Jeter goes out in style to fitting All-Star farewell

MINNEAPOLIS—The afternoon of Derek Jeter’s final All-Star Game started with a ride in the back of a slow-moving pickup truck, waving to the crowds along the red-carpeted streets of Minneapolis as the vehicle rolled toward the players’ entrance of Target Field.

It concluded with the retiring Yankees captain doffing his cap to a standing ovation that lasted more than three minutes, finishing 2-for-2 with a double and a run scored as the American League’s leadoff hitter before being replaced at shortstop for the fourth inning.

“Any player that says they don’t want to go to an All-Star Game is lying to you,” Jeter said. “It’s something everyone wants to be a part of. I’ve been fortunate to be a part of a few of them and I’m happy that I had a chance to do it one last time.”

I didn’t watch the game all that closely as I was over at someone’s house for a late dinner but I did watch some of it later on DVR and it wasn’t nearly as tacky as I was expecting it to be, especially when Mike Trout deservedly won the MVP over Jeter despite Jeter’s solid performance.  Seeing the vile Bud Selig made me wonder how his farewell tour was going.  I haven’t heard much about it for some reason.

The season will resume Friday, with David Phelps toeing the rubber at home against Cincinnati.  If you want to get a sense of the Yankees’ chances over the rest of the season, realize that their first three starters after the All Star Break when you can essentially set your rotation to your best advantage are Phelps, Brandon McCarthy and Hiroki Kuroda.

It’s not impossible the Yankees can make a run at a postseason spot.  But it’s pretty damn unlikely at this point.  I don’t really have the interest in running my Monte Carlo simulations but I’ll just point to the Fangraphs playoff odds instead.

Division winning odds: 8.3 %
Wild card odds: 3.0 %
Qualifying for postseason odds: 11.4 %
Making it to the divisional series odds: 9.8 %

I don’t know what those assume about a return by Masahiro Tanaka, but that’s pretty much a requirement for this team to have any actual chance at making a postseason run.  The Yankees have 68 games left this season.  If they play at a 95 win pace they would win 40 of them and end the year at 87 wins.  That could win the AL East. 

And monkeys could fly out of my butt.

--Posted at 7:10 am by SG / 78 Comments | - (0)



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