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Yankees.com: Yanks, Judge make Astros CC sick in G3
(6 Comments - 10/17/2017 9:15:50 am)

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Monday, 10/16/2017, 08:08p ET
(212 Comments - 10/17/2017 8:11:52 am)

Yankees.com: Yankees fall on walk-off into 0-2 ALCS hole
(52 Comments - 10/16/2017 5:03:21 pm)

2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds
(1 Comment - 10/16/2017 4:08:29 pm)

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Saturday, 10/14/2017, 04:08p ET
(314 Comments - 10/15/2017 12:42:52 am)

Yankees.com: Tanaka solid, but Yanks stifled in LCS Game 1
(11 Comments - 10/14/2017 10:41:28 am)

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/13/2017, 08:08p ET
(190 Comments - 10/14/2017 10:28:33 am)

2017 Yankees vs. Astros ALCS Postseason Odds
(28 Comments - 10/13/2017 4:23:19 pm)

Yankees.com: Didi drives Yanks to ALCS date with Astros
(95 Comments - 10/13/2017 11:33:11 am)

Yankees (91-71) @ Indians (102-60), Wednesday, 10/11/2017, 08:08p ET
(447 Comments - 10/12/2017 5:40:52 am)


Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Yankees.com: Yanks, Judge make Astros CC sick in G3

Each of the three October contests between the Astros and Yankees have featured loud chants of “M-V-P!” echoing throughout a sold-out venue. Jose Altuve’s fantastic season has continued for Houston, but Monday night’s plaudits were for Aaron Judge, as the Yanks’ rookie right fielder enjoyed a postseason performance for the ages at Yankee Stadium.
Judge crushed a three-run homer in the fourth inning and made several splendid defensive plays, including a fearless crash into the right-field wall in the top of the fourth, as he made his presence felt by powering the Yankees’ surge in an 8-1 victory over the Astros in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World.

I don’t see how the Yankees just let CC Sabathia go after all he’s done this season and the postseason.

Great win and it gave the Yankees the all-important Pythagoras advantage in the series. Thank goodness Aaron Judge had a good game, as it was getting brutal hearing the coverage he was getting.

Anyhow, the season (more or less) turns on Tuesday afternoon’s game. The Yankees have been avoiding Sonny Gray all postseason since he was bad in Game 1 of the ALDS. Let’s hope that he proves everybody wrong in Game 2! The Astros are countering with Lance McCullers, who has had success against the Yankees, over their normal #4 starter, Brad Peacock. Let’s hope that that was a mistake on their part!

--Posted at 6:02 am by Brian Cronin / 6 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 16, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Monday, 10/16/2017, 08:08p ET

Astros: Charlie Morton (R): (146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.8 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.4 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) DH .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Evan Gattis (R) C .263/.311/.457, 0.9 fWAR
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 1B .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
8. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
9. Cameron Maybin (R) LF .228/.318/.365, 1.2 fWAR
Team Total: 32.5 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

The good news is that Charlie Morton is no Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander.  The bad news is CC Sabathia is no Masahiro Tanaka or Luis Severino.  The fact that the Yankees are even in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a game.

--Posted at 3:44 pm by SG / 212 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 14, 2017

Yankees.com: Yankees fall on walk-off into 0-2 ALCS hole

A legendary pitching performance by Justin Verlander, a memorable swing from Carlos Correa and a mad-dash sprint from Jose Altuve have the Astros two wins away from reaching the World Series presented by YouTube TV.
Correa hit a game-winning double into the right-center-field gap off Aroldis Chapman to score Altuve from first base and send the Astros to a 2-1 walk-off win over the Yankees in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World on Saturday at Minute Maid Park.

These first two games have been very even, the Astros have just been a little bit better. These aren’t two games that make you think that the Yankees have no chance to win the series, but they’re certainly two really tough, one-run losses. Keuchel and Verlander were both excellent. It really is more of a case of tipping the hat to them than anything else.

--Posted at 10:56 pm by Brian Cronin / 52 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Saturday, 10/14/2017, 04:08p ET

Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Justin Verlander (R): (34 IP, 1.06 ERA, 5.9 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR

Normally, I’d tell you that you can take all your fancy stats and throw them in the East River.  However, some stats are too powerful and meaningful to ignore.

Luis Severino had an ERA of 10.57 against the Astros and 2.66 against the rest of baseball.  He’s facing a pitcher who did not allow a single run to the Yankees this season.  What do you think is going to happen today?

--Posted at 12:01 pm by SG / 314 Comments | - (0)



2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds

Since Discofever asked, here’s a quick overview of the NLCS teams and their projections.  It’s the National League, so I can’t pretend to be well-versed enough in either team to present much beyond what the data says so here it is.

First, the Cubs position players.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Jon Jay LF 27.00 .277/.349/.366 17.58 3.05
Kris Bryant 3B 27.00 .284/.388/.528 16.52 4.54
Anthony Rizzo 1B 27.00 .282/.392/.536 16.42 4.62
Willson Contreras C 27.00 .268/.342/.455 17.77 3.69
Albert Almora CF 26.00 .269/.296/.393 18.30 2.69
Addison Russell SS 26.00 .248/.319/.430 17.71 3.19
Jason Heyward RF 25.00 .265/.340/.413 16.50 3.12
Javier Baez 2B 25.00 .258/.307/.446 17.33 3.14
Kyle Schwarber OF 14.12 .236/.334/.491 9.40 2.00
Ben Zobrist UT 15.00 .259/.351/.418 9.74 1.93
Alex Avila C 4.00 .230/.355/.394 2.58 0.47
Tommy La Stella IF 4.00 .270/.349/.393 2.60 0.47
Ian Happ C 4.00 .241/.312/.440 2.75 0.49
Leonys Martin OF 4.00 .244/.298/.367 2.81 0.40
Total 255.12 168.00 33.81

I should note here that I’m using outs based on 24 times seven games instead of 27 because of the arcane rules in this league that require every team have three automatic outs among their 27.  Then again, without that rule, we wouldn’t have the tactical excitement that only the double switch can bring.

Next up, the Dodgers.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Chris Taylor CF 28.00 .268/.332/.422 18.70 3.50
Corey Seager SS 27.86 .285/.351/.476 18.08 4.01
Justin Turner 3B 27.00 .296/.376/.494 16.85 4.21
Cody Bellinger 1B 27.00 .248/.326/.499 18.20 3.87
Yasiel Puig RF 27.00 .277/.353/.492 17.47 4.02
Curtis Granderson LF 24.00 .234/.332/.455 16.03 3.19
Chase Utley 2B 21.00 .241/.313/.390 14.43 2.34
Austin Barnes C 16.00 .258/.343/.404 10.51 1.95
Logan Forsythe 2B 16.00 .250/.341/.401 10.54 1.94
Yasmani Grandal C 15.00 .239/.330/.453 10.05 1.99
Kike Hernandez OF 12.00 .231/.305/.397 8.34 1.29
Andre Ethier OF 11.00 .254/.328/.411 7.39 1.29
Kyle Farmer C 2.00 .300/.300/.350 1.40 0.18
Joc Pederson OF 0.00 .231/.345/.445 0.00 0.00
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 0.00 .242/.287/.355 0.00 0.00
Total 253.86 168.00 33.78

And now, the Cubs pitching staff (which is kind of discombulated at the moment).

Pitcher Role IP R
Jose Quintana SP 10.00 4.13
Jon Lester SP 8.00 3.55
Jake Arrieta SP 6.00 2.68
Kyle Hendricks SP 6.00 2.70
John Lackey SP 5.00 2.42
Wade Davis RP 4.00 1.37
Pedro Strop RP 4.00 1.53
Justin Wilson RP 4.00 1.67
Brian Duensing RP 3.00 1.30
Carl Edwards Jr. RP 3.00 1.20
Mike Montgomery RP 3.00 1.43
Total 56.00 23.97

Lastly, the Dodgers.

Pitcher Role IP R
Clayton Kershaw SP 12.00 3.86
Yu Darvish SP 12.00 5.16
Rich Hill SP 6.00 2.54
Alex Wood RP 5.00 1.99
Kenley Jansen RP 4.00 1.07
Brandon Morrow RP 4.00 1.73
Tony Watson RP 3.00 1.34
Tony Cingrani RP 3.00 1.46
Josh Fields RP 3.00 1.40
Pedro Baez RP 2.00 0.71
Kenta Maeda RP 1.00 0.41
Ross Stripling RP 1.00 0.45
Total 56.00 21.67

At one point in the year, the Dodgers were threatening the 1998 Yankees as the best team of all time.  Luckily for us, they went into a major slump and finished the year as a merely great team.  I don’t know if they’re better than Houston on a talent basis, but they are close enough to have an argument for it.  These projections and depth charts have them scoring 33.78 runs per game and allowing 21.67, which is a 70.8% winning percentage.  The Cubs are essentially the same offensively at 33.81 runs per game, but their pitching is a couple of runs worse. 

The Cubs are still a very good team, and can certainly win this series.  But the Dodgers should be favored, and using these numbers I’d put the odds for getting the chance to get beat by Houston at Dodgers 54.1%, Cubs 45.9%.

--Posted at 7:16 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)




Friday, October 13, 2017

Yankees.com: Tanaka solid, but Yanks stifled in LCS Game 1

Dallas Keuchel owned the moment and the Yankees in a way that only he can Friday night, throwing seven masterful innings to lead the Astros to a 2-1 victory in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park.
Keuchel struck out 10—a postseason record by an Astros left-hander—and was backed by key contributions from longtime teammates Jose Altuve, who beat out an infield single and scored the first run in a two-run fourth, and Marwin Gonzalez, who threw out a runner at the plate to end the top of the fifth and preserve the shutout.

Quick aside, how does Camping World have enough money to buy the naming rights to the American League Championship Series? That’s kind of crazy.

Anyhow, it’s weird, I really don’t believe in just punting Game 1 of the ALCS, but at the same time, had the Yankees just thrown Sonny Gray tonight, they would have the pitching advantage in possibly three of the next four games (if Keuchel came back in Game 4, you could argue he’d be less effective on short rest). But that would be punting a game and that’s probably not a good idea, so the Yankees probably made the right move to go to their hottest pitcher. Tanaka just was slightly worse than Keuchel, just like what happened in 2015, when Tanaka was also slightly worse than Keuchel. Chad Green was also “wasted” in a loss, but, again, they had to use him to keep it close. It all just ended about as poorly as it could have ended.

Hopefully Severino pitches a great game on Saturday and hopefully Keuchel pulls a Tevor Bauer and is worse the next time he pitches.

--Posted at 11:47 pm by Brian Cronin / 11 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/13/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (178.1 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Dallas Keuchel (L): (145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 4.5 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
8. Matt Holliday (R) DH .231/.316/.432, -0.1 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 28.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR

Masahiro Tanaka’s worst start of the season was against the Astros on May 14 at Yankee Stadium.  Tanaka allowed eight earned runs in 1.2 innings, including four homers.  That game is actually worse than it appears because of how well he pitched at home (3.22 ERA) vs. on the road (6.48 ERA) this year.

It’s the only game that Tanaka pitched against Houston this year, so it’s the only data point we need.  We know that Tanaka is a 43.21729 ERA pitcher against Houston in Yankee Stadium.  We know he’s 2.012422 times worse on the road than he is at home.  Ergo, Tanaka against Houston in Houston is a 86.97143 ERA pitcher, which means he should allow about 16.09938 runs tonight if he can last 1.2 innings.

On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has thrown 50.2 career innings against the Yankees and has allowed a grand total of seven earned runs.  In order for the Yankees to score as many runs against Keuchel as Tanaka is likely to give up tonight, they would have to face Keuchel for 116 innings.

If the Yankees can last into the 116th inning in tonight’s ALCS opener, they may have a chance to steal this one.  Otherwise, I have to say the advantage lies with Houston.

I wouldn’t even show up tonight if I were the Yankees.  I’d forfeit.  Concede the loss and rest the bullpen and hope you can get lucky tomorrow.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 3:24 pm by SG / 190 Comments | - (0)



2017 Yankees vs. Astros ALCS Postseason Odds

It feels like forever since I’ve had the opportunity or interest to do one of these posts.  Actually, it’s been eight days but it feels longer for some reason.

Anyway, the Yankees are back in the ALCS for the first time in five years and while they are facing a team that is probably better than them anything can happen in the playoffs.  In fact, the Yankees got here by beating a team that was probably better than them, which seems only fair considering they lost the division to a team that was worse than them this year.  Anyhow, like the last time I did this I’m not using 2017 data only, I’m using the Fangraphs Depth Chart projections for the Yankees and Astros which appear to have been updated to include 2017.

This all comes down to trying to allocate playing time over seven games for the position players and pitchers.  We’ll assume 27 outs per game times seven games (189 outs) for both teams even though Houston won’t have to bat in the ninth in either of the first two games and the series is only going to go four games. For the Yankees it may look something like this.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Brett Gardner LF 31.00 .260/.345/.409 20.31 3.88
Aaron Judge RF 31.00 .253/.363/.528 19.75 4.99
Gary Sanchez C 31.00 .268/.330/.512 20.77 4.62
Didi Gregorius SS 30.56 .273/.316/.440 20.90 3.78
Starlin Castro 2B 30.00 .278/.315/.435 20.55 3.62
Gregory Bird 1B 30.00 .239/.322/.464 20.34 3.99
Aaron Hicks OF 30.00 .251/.337/.419 19.89 3.86
Todd Frazier 3B 30.00 .235/.324/.456 20.28 3.93
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 14.00 .263/.332/.389 9.35 1.64
Chase Headley 1B 10.00 .258/.337/.398 6.63 1.19
Matt Holliday DH 8.00 .247/.333/.448 5.34 1.07
Ronald Torreyes IF 3.00 .276/.311/.371 2.07 0.31
Austin Romine C 2.00 .244/.290/.365 1.42 0.20
Tyler Wade IF 1.00 .229/.292/.321 0.71 0.06
Clint Frazier OF 1.00 .237/.298/.420 0.70 0.10
Total 282.56 189.00 37.23

I realize Wade and Frazier may not even be on the roster but 1 PA doesn’t change things that much.

When we do the same thing for Houston, we can see how much better they are than the Yankees.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
George Springer CF 32.00 .270/.362/.495 20.42 4.81
Josh Reddick RF 31.00 .283/.343/.465 20.37 4.30
Jose Altuve 2B 30.80 .323/.380/.498 19.10 4.99
Carlos Correa SS 30.00 .289/.368/.503 18.96 4.73
Marwin Gonzalez LF 30.00 .273/.327/.450 20.19 3.84
Alex Bregman 3B 30.00 .275/.341/.464 19.77 4.17
Yulieski Gurriel 1B 30.00 .282/.330/.470 20.10 4.09
Evan Gattis DH 30.00 .255/.308/.485 20.76 4.03
Brian McCann C 20.00 .240/.322/.433 13.56 2.49
Carlos Beltran DH 6.00 .256/.307/.435 4.16 0.72
Cameron Maybin OF 5.00 .252/.328/.385 3.36 0.58
Derek Fisher OF 5.00 .229/.308/.392 3.46 0.51
Tyler White IF 5.00 .249/.321/.426 3.40 0.58
Juan Centeno C 2.00 .249/.294/.346 1.41 0.13
Tony Kemp UT 0.00 .260/.322/.355 0.00 0.00
Total 286.80 189.00 39.99

Houston projects to be about 2.76 runs better than the Yankees over seven games which is a massive difference.  But SG, how can you say 2.76 runs is a massive difference?  It’s like one inning from Tyler Clippard?  Well, yeah, in absolute terms 2.76 runs is not much.  But pro-rate 2.76 runs over seven games to 162 games and you have an offense that is 63.8 runs better over a full season.  That’s fairly significant, no?

The theoretical good news may be that the Yankees have the edge in pitching, but that may not necessarily be true either.

Pitcher Role IP R
Masahiro Tanaka SP 10.00 4.70
Luis Severino SP 10.00 4.46
CC Sabathia SP 8.00 4.46
Sonny Gray RP 5.00 2.53
Aroldis Chapman RP 4.00 1.27
David Robertson RP 4.00 1.56
Dellin Betances RP 3.00 0.97
Chad Green RP 4.00 1.73
Tommy Kahnle RP 4.00 1.53
Adam Warren RP 2.00 0.97
Jordan Montgomery RP 2.00 1.10
Total 56.00 25.28

I’m assuming a fairly quick hook on the starters given the depth of the Yankee bullpen here.  In an ideal world, Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino go 7 innings in their starts and minimize the load on the bullpen but given the potency of Houston’s offense that’s not likely.

So how does that pitching compare with Houston?

Pitcher Role IP R
Dallas Keuchel SP 12.00 5.38
Justin Verlander SP 11.00 5.00
Charlie Morton SP 5.00 2.33
Brad Peacock SP 5.00 2.56
Ken Giles RP 5.00 1.84
Luke Gregerson RP 5.00 2.27
Chris Devenski RP 5.00 2.09
Lance McCullers RP 3.00 1.08
Francisco Liriano RP 2.00 0.97
Will Harris SP 2.00 0.83
Joe Musgrove RP 1.00 0.49
Total 56.00 24.84

Dallas Keuchel may be the key to this series.  The Yankees have faced him six times in the regular season over his career and he’s held them to a line of .190/.218/.234.  He’s got a 1.41 career regular season ERA against them in 44 innings.  Those numbers don’t even include the last time the Yankees faced him in the postseason.

The good news is that batter/pitcher stats are not generally meaningful and even if they were a lot of the Yankees that were there for those games have been replaced by different players.  The bad news is Keuchel is a damn good pitcher and a tough challenge and the Yankees may see him three times depending how the series shakes out.  Justin Verlander has been a boon for the Astros and there’s no need to delve into specifics with him.  The Yankees have had some success against him at times, but he’s also someone who can dominate when he’s on.

Anyway, the Yankees bullpen is probably deeper than Houston’s but they have a pretty comparable top three and their overall pitching staff actually projects slightly better than the Yankees.

In the postseason, the talent is concentrated.  These depth charts and projections give us a Yankee team that would project to win around 69% of their games against an Astros team that would project to win around 73%.  Change that to 68.7% and 73.3% to account for the one game home field advantage.  That gives you these odds for advancing to the World Series:

Houston: 54.6%
New York: 45.4%

--Posted at 10:19 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 12, 2017

Yankees.com: Didi drives Yanks to ALCS date with Astros

The Yankees believed they had the right blend of talent not only to force the American League Division Series back to Progressive Field, but to win it all. Having made good on that promise by knocking off the defending AL champion Indians, New York’s improbable and exhilarating run at a 28th World Series title will now run through Houston.

Didi Gregorius homered twice, CC Sabathia rolled back the clock with nine strikeouts before turning it over to the bullpen in the fifth inning and the Yankees completed their historic comeback from a daunting deficit, advancing past the Indians with a 5-2 victory in Game 5 of the ALDS on Wednesday night.

“For me to be here with these guys is just unbelievable,” Gregorius said. “This amazing, young team that we’ve got, everybody helps each other out here. Everybody wants each other to be good. I think that’s the motto since I got here.”

Well, that was okay.

Remember how shitty 2004 was? I don’t mean to bring up a terrible memory, but I was thinking about it because, at the time, despite the Yankees being up 3-0, I really hated the pitching match-ups for the next four games and I remember telling people throughout the Boston comeback that I was thinking that the Sox had a real chance the whole time. Similarly, the Yankees’ pitching advantages in Games 3 and 4 made this comeback look possible. Even before Game 2, I recall noting, “Okay, so they’re going to lose tonight, but they really should win Games 3 and 4 and then who knows?” Of course, they should have won Game 2. Speaking of Game 2, Joe Girardi seriously looked happier with this win than he did when they won the World Series in 2009, that’s how pumped he was that his team got his back after the big Game 2 blunder. Good for him.

While Didi was the main hero in Game 5, it is definitely worth noting that three of the key contributors in this game - CC Sabathia, David Robertson and Brett Gardner - all played for the Yankees in the 2009 World Series. That’s pretty awesome.

Houston will be a tough matchup, but the Yankees are now a tough matchup themselves for everyone else, so it should be a fun series.

Let’s hope that the Yankees keep the good times rolling as they head into Houston.

--Posted at 4:43 am by Brian Cronin / 95 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Indians (102-60), Wednesday, 10/11/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.4 RA-9 WAR) vs. Indians: Corey Kluber (R): (203.2 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.5 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) DH .264/.348/.402, 1.6 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 29.7 fWAR

Indians
1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS .273/.337/.505, 5.9 fWAR
2. Jason Kipnis (L) CF .232/.291/.414, 0.7 fWAR
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 2B .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH .258/.377/.504, 2.5 fWAR
5. Carlos Santana (S) 1B .259/.363/.455, 3.0 fWAR
6. Austin Jackson (R) LF .318/.387/.482, 1.8 fWAR
7. Jay Bruce (L) RF .248/.331/.477, 2.7 fWAR
8. Roberto Perez (R) C .207/.291/.373, 0.5 fWAR
9. Giovanny Urshela (R) 3B .224/.262/.288, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 23.2 fWAR

This is probably the last game of the Yankees’ season.  It was mostly fun while it lasted.

--Posted at 4:06 pm by SG / 447 Comments | - (0)



NY Post: Which Kluber will Yankees see? Stats offer conflicting stories

CLEVELAND — The Yankees got to Cleveland ace Corey Kluber in Game 2 for six runs in just 2 ²/₃ innings, knocking the Cy Young candidate out of the game.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Yankees went on to lose that game, with Joe Girardi and the bullpen managing to blow a five-run lead.

The other dose of bad news for the Yankees? Kluber rarely has two rough outings in a row.

The only time he surrendered six runs during the regular season, April 15 against the Tigers, he came back to shut out the White Sox in his next outing.

“We’ve seen him extremely sharp and I think we caught him on a night that he wasn’t sharp,” Girardi said. “So you hope you catch him on another night that he’s not sharp.’’

On those nights when Kluber was sharp against the Yankees, they had little chance.

The right-hander held them to a run on three hits in a complete-game victory Aug. 3, when he struck out 11, and then allowed just two runs on three hits in eight innings against them Aug. 28.

Before his Game 2 fiasco, Kluber hadn’t given up more than two runs in an outing since Aug. 13.

Corey Kluber is probably the best pitcher in the American League.  He is miles better than CC Sabathia.  If you believe the Fangraphs depth chart projections, there is almost no difference between the Yankees’ lineup and Cleveland’s lineup.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Brett Gardner LF 5.00 .260/.345/.409 3.28 0.63
Aaron Judge RF 5.00 .253/.363/.528 3.19 0.80
Gary Sanchez C 5.00 .268/.330/.512 3.35 0.75
Didi Gregorius SS 5.00 .273/.316/.440 3.42 0.62
Starlin Castro 2B 4.45 .278/.315/.435 3.05 0.54
Gregory Bird 1B 4.00 .239/.322/.464 2.71 0.53
Todd Frazier 3B 4.00 .235/.324/.456 2.70 0.52
Chase Headley DH 4.00 .258/.337/.398 2.65 0.47
Aaron Hicks CF 4.00 .251/.337/.419 2.65 0.51
Total 40.45 27.00 5.38
Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Francisco Lindor SS 5.00 .289/.349/.478 3.26 0.72
Jason Kipnis CF 5.00 .261/.330/.427 3.35 0.63
Jose Ramirez 2B 5.00 .298/.354/.489 3.23 0.75
Edwin Encarnacion DH 5.00 .261/.367/.513 3.17 0.80
Jay Bruce RF 4.57 .258/.324/.493 3.09 0.65
Carlos Santana 1B 4.00 .258/.372/.470 2.51 0.60
Lonnie Chisenhall LF 4.00 .270/.328/.445 2.69 0.52
Yan Gomes C 4.00 .236/.292/.413 2.83 0.44
Giovanny Urshela 3B 4.00 .246/.281/.357 2.88 0.35
Total 40.57 27.00 5.46

I don’t have actual lineups for tonight, but this should be fairly close.  The Indians are projected to be about 0.08 runs better than the Yankees offensively.  The difference tonight is in the expected performance of the pitching.

Pitcher Role IP R
CC Sabathia SP 5.00 2.79
Chad Green RP 1.00 0.43
David Robertson RP 2.00 0.78
Aroldis Chapman RP 1.00 0.32
Total 9.00 4.32
Pitcher Role IP R
Corey Kluber SP 6.00 2.23
Andrew Miller RP 2.00 0.52
Cody Allen RP 1.00 0.39
Total 9.00 3.14

That translates to a win probability for Cleveland of 67.2% vs. the Yankees 32.8%.  I probably would have started Sonny Gray over Sabathia tonight, but the difference is only about 0.25 runs over five innings and about a 4% change in Yankee win probability.  It doesn’t change the fact that this is one of the largest mismatches in a winner-take-all series finale game ever, and it’s extremely likely the Yankees are going home after tonight.

Frankly, I’m not sure they should even bother playing.

--Posted at 11:54 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)



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